An irreverent look at Wall Street
how big will the friday payroll data be?with your projection of 1400 bu mid year...is that the top and we pull back significantly? thanks
historically the labor department has always had negative revisions to data--but the last seven month sit was differentApril-539K, revised to -519KMay -345K, revised -303KJune -467K revised -463KJuly -247K revised -304KAug -216K revised -154KSep -263K revised -139KOct -190K revised -111KNov -11KThus Nov should be revised +tive,December--the non Christmas layoffs, and the additional Census workers--I'm dismissing the ADP 84,000 job number today, because the ADP OVERSTATED job losses by 85,000 per month the last six monthsTherefore ADP tells me we have job growthI think December will have a positive print of at least 44,000 jobs, and it could be much morewhy? The December announced layoff figures were only 45,094 jobs
Talking historically, the economy should have CREATED 2 million jobs at this point in the so called recovery. The numbers are such fiction its laughable anyways. Birth death modeling and especially the small business creation, which is a out and out guess. With the freeze out of credit to small businesses, you can count on that being way optimistic.That some report might finally show a tiny positive is hardly a reason to party. After all, you're only 1,950,000 short of historical recovery jobs. But, if thats all it'll take to achieve happy hour, good for ya.
how will this affect gold?
You don't need much to keep the party going. Look at another favorite short SHLD up 13--profitability.Remember the short story? They weren't modernizing the stores, no selection, bad real estate locations..same with the jobs number--all these people saying we'll have an 8% unemployment rate until 2020--ckeck out Moody's latest.. are just stupid we'll have an 8 handle this year
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