Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Judge rules upgrades/downgrades are not "proprietary" information

A federal appeals court ruled on Monday that investment banks could not stop a financial Web site from immediately publishing the research recommendations of their stock analysts, delivering a blow to Wall Street and a win for the investing public.

Perhaps more significant, the decision was a victory for Internet companies whose business models depend upon summarizing and commenting on others’ original content. Yet media businesses also cheered the ruling because it left in place legal protections against rogue competitors who copy and resell original news reporting at little or no cost.

“It’s a great decision for the free flow of information in the new media age,” said Kathleen M. Sullivan, a lawyer who filed a brief in the case on behalf of two clients, Google and Twitter.

In a lawsuit closely followed by the world’s largest financial, media and technology businesses, a panel of three judges on the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in Manhattan ruled that Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America could not dictate who reported news about their stock research — nor when they reported it.

Monday, June 20, 2011

Goldman: Steel stocks may have bottomed

gs 1 (5)

Thursday, June 2, 2011


US Equity strategy – Constructive on selloff – 4 reasons for shifting call to buy the “summer of cyclicals” - The seeds of the downturn in economic momentum, and thus, the sell-off in Cyclicals, were first evident in early March, when economic momentum oscillators turned down (one easily accessed is the Citi Eco Surprise Index, CESIUSD Index GP <>). This was a reason for our downgrade of Consumer Discretionary on April 1 (and broader caution on Cyclicals, see “Circle of Life” dated 4/1/11). Since then, incoming economic data have disappointed so consistently that the EASI (or CESI) recently registered -91, the lowest non-recession reading since 2004, and last week, we saw a proximity to the low for the summer but needed to “look for additional confirmation” (see “Scared in May...June-Sept is front loaded” dated 5/26/11). We believe Wednesday’s 2.3% sell-off feels of capitulation and confirms summer weakness would be “front-end loaded.” Thus, we now see the big call is “Summer of Cyclicals” (Buy them), with 4 reasons: #1: Cyclicals have underperformed Defensives by 1,160bp since 2/16/11, matching the 1,109bp underperformance seen in April-August 2010 (see Figure 1). #2: Cyclicals now trade at a 4% discount to Defensive (rel P/E), lower than the rel P/E as of August 2010 and well below long-term average of 114% (see Figure 3). #3: EASI/CESI is at oscillator low and economists cutting forecasts now. 4: Capitulation evident in bearish AAII reading—a quality contrarian Buy signal. We identified 20 Cyclical stocks (Figure 11) using the following criteria: 1) Rated OW by JPM; 2) Mkt cap > $4b; 3) Cyclicals (Technology, Industrials, Discretionary, Materials); and 4) Top 20 Highest Potential Upside to JPM Target Price. T. Lee

US Equity technical strategist – Sector revie w- Industrials moves out of the more constructive group - The Consumer Staples and Health Care charts look more constructive relative to the others. The Energy and Financial Services charts look less constructive relative to the others. Consumer Discretionary (IXY) is likely to see more backing and filling after May’s 411 bearish reversal month. Consumer Staples (IXR) keeps a positive tone, but watch for divergences on new price highs. Energy (IXE) may be topping above 730; rel. str. gets more constructive above the violated April lows/May highs. Financials (IXM) downtrend and underperf. continues; a Fri close below 156 confirms a 158 bearish outside week. Health Care (IXV) pauses just shy of the 370 May ‘07 all time high; look for new highs after some consolidation. Industrials (IXI) leaves the “more constructive” group after May’s 390 bearish reversal month. Materials (IXB) trades in a large 384-434 Nov-June range; a Fri close below 413 confirms a 419 bearish reversal week. Technology (IXT) consolidates below the 269-271 resistance cluster; rel. str. continues to hold key support. Utilities (IXU) pauses after nearly achieving the 346 Mar 16-Apr 12 1.618 swing obj.; rel. str. meets resistance. Cohen

Goldman: Buy calls on MGM, AAPL

Americas-Morning-Summary (2)

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Happy Birthday Dad!

And 54 years of marriage on deck!


Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – Takeaways from investor meetings, reaffirming OW rating - We recently met with Rob Goldstein, president of LVS’s global gaming operations, and Dan Briggs, head of LVS’s investor relations. This morning, we reaffirm our Overweight rating and $55 year-end 2011 price target, given steady EBITDA growth in Macau and Singapore, recent share price weakness (down 12% in the last month), and an attractive valuation (19x next year’s EPS, below its estimated 30% EPS growth through 2013). Our key takeaways from the meetings: (1) LVS is making steady junket progress in Macau; (2) Singapore mass volumes/revenues appear to be growing sequentially; and (3) there seems to be less seasonality in Singapore VIP volumes. Greff

Goldman's Morning

GS 3