Friday, January 29, 2010

Read between the lines!!

OK--look at what our Government (Goldman Sachs) is doing. They removed FCX and downgraded X the last few days from their CL. So that means you can now buy them!

That was just a trading maneuver.

Today they upgraded WMT, and they said that China would be fine.

Well, wasn't the thesis for getting sour on the materials was that China would tank, and stimulus money was yet too far away?

But X (45.58)  DE (51.11) CAT (51.86), FCX (68.82), CMI (45.55) have all corrected enough to give good entry points again.

Because now its Wall Street's turn to screw the shorts!


Anonymous said...

nice call

Anonymous said...

are you still holding MGM? i was out all week but should have set a price to sell at 12.

palmoni said...

I held it--Goldman came out with a report being +ive on lodging and RevPAR--MGM wasn't mentioned but some things should apply there

Source of opportunity
We believe the following five factors will drive RevPAR to rebound:
(1) Corporate profits, SG&A and GDP, all factors highly correlated with RevPAR, are expected to accelerate
in 2010; (2) occupancy is close to turning to positive yoy growth, which has historically been a precursor to
ADR growth; (3) a weak dollar and strong growth from emerging markets should provide for international
RevPAR strength; (4) comparisons are easier until the middle of 2010, making a rebound easier to achieve;
and (5) supply growth should continue to decline throughout the year, creating a clear path for a sustained period. As we move through this year we expect guidance and consensus estimates to be beaten, driving
share performance. While hotel stocks all showed significant performance in 2009 (up 74% on average), we
see more to come in 2010.

Anonymous said...

what do you think of AMZN?

Palmoni said...

I don't like it. I think it's a sell. You can't hit the other NAZ names and leave AMZN alone. Jefferies touted this number today, so you can probably find something you like, but I just don't like the chart on it.

That being said, a ton of charts are broken, and I've been buying some of the brokeness today.

Here's what Jeffries had to say on AMZN

Rating(Reiterating): BUY Price Target: From $150.00 to $160.00
Strong Q4 Results and Guidance; Raising PT to $160
Investment Summary:
Robust e-Commerce activity enabled AMZN to deliver strong growth across the board while
margins benefited from scale leverage. Macro recovery in FY10 should benefit AMZN as it
gains further global e-Com share. That said, iPad's entry should slow Kindle's momentum.
4Q09 revenues and EPS comfortably beat consensus as both EGM (electronics/general
merchandise/other) and Media segments showed accelerating growth. We're raising our PT to
$160 from $150 while maintaining our Buy rating.

Anonymous said...

What are you doing with DE CAT FCX X and CMI that you touted this morning?

Anonymous said...

thanks Palmoni on MGM...i guess i'll hold.

i've started my daughters long term investing account with $900...any sugguestions?

i was thinking HL and something else but gold seems to be hammer hard...thoughts?


Palmoni said...

Bought some calls on CMI and X. Watching FCX and DE still haven't done anything with that yet. I bought CAT, and haven't done anything yet with the other two...but the day is still young!

When stocks get cheap, I buy the calls on them first. Because I never know if they're going to get hit any more.When they start acting better--like today--today this up down action is a perfect day for a good reversal to the upside. You have all these people squeamish that just can't buy, and when we gap up, and then sell off--well you can just see the bears hitting the market.

the selling here isn't natural selling. It is selling designed to make you believe that there is real selling behind it.

It's just stupid trick time and more Let's pretend.

We'll see. I'm getting more involved here.

ohh and listen to every shill on CNBC telling you to sell. The other day Fast Money was telling you how copper was just being dumped.

Here's the question if you think the market is going to get killed. Where's the leverage? I don't know anyone in fund land that is leverage dnow. Who is going to puke up their bets? They've already been puked up!

They just want you to think we are going to revisit the action that we had in 2008. They want you to think that every rally is now a sell blah blah blah

It's way too obvious and way too transparent---that's just what they want you to think.

palmoni said...

i'll get back on that--putting $ to work today

Anonymous said...

SMH down 10% for the month, and off 13% from recent high. The headlines are getting funny..."tech declines on gloomy outlook". I guess that's true until it isn't. Where are they getting this storyline? Certainly not from the calls.

Great story from Bill Miller today. Thanks for posting it.

Anonymous said...

Palmoni, you are $10 early on X, it is gonna get to $30s before rebounding. The reason is that your "touting" or not touting does not mean a shit. And stop "pretending" that you can disect and figure out which GS calls are real and must be followed and which must be sold.

Anonymous said...

So when will "they" stop their pretend selling? (I thought is was supposed to be yesterday?!!) LOL

Anonymous said...

But joking aside Palmoni, I personally don't believe we'll see a big rally until after they re-confirm Quantitative Easing part 2. So, when would such thing be announced? Would have to be a few weeks before March 31, or could they wait right to the last minute at the end of the month? Thanks again!

Palmoni said...

We'll see--I like buying pain!

Sure smelled like capitulation by the bulls today!

Anonymous said...

What happened to your 7.5% January rally? As advertised!

Palmoni said...

I had an "as unadvertised" piece on that, but luckily it was brought in the comments so I don't have to publish it.

I have to eat some crow for that call-I call everyone else out when they mess up, so I have to do it to myself