Saturday, October 31, 2009

What's happening in Titletown?

They're drinking, and doing things like this--A Funeral 4 Favre:

And they're drinking some more, and stealing Aaron Rodgers sign. The mayor of Green Bay, Jim Schmitt changed the name of Minnesota Avenue to Aaron Rodgers drive--and the sign was promptly stolen.

He was caught because a police officer saw a strange, green glow in the back of his car--at around 2:00 am.

The sign stealer said he was just taking the sign to a charity. After not being able to identify one, he was booked and fined $366.

Brett Favre pass was left untouched.

They're waiting to take one at the game!

Halloween at the White House

CNBC's top Halloween customes

And besides the Halloween costumes, they have highlights from the latest Frederick's catalogue.

I guess they got the message that their ratings had gone down.

But why isn't Melissa Lee on this story?

The White House log

George Soros met with Obama on March 24 and 25. That week he had an interview published in the Times Online where he said this: 

We could end up with a depression. “Unless we handle it well then I think we would. The size of the problem is actually bigger than in the 1930s.” 

The chances of a depression are, he says, “quite high” – even if that is averted, the recession will last a long time. “Look, we are not going back to where we came from. In that sense it’s going to last for ever.” 

He tells us that he has psycho-somatic illnesses – backaches and pains – that tip him off to changes in the market.

The next week he flip-floped his viewpoint, saying that he G-20 would rescue the world.

Did Obama intervention help? He met with Obama on March 24.

Lloyd Blankfein, Jamie Dimon, Ken Lewis, Vikram Pandit and the rest of the bankers were summoned to the White House on March 24, to meet with Bo on March 27.

At that time, an Obama spokesman had said this to say "reiterate his belief that getting the economy back on track will require an understanding that each of us must look beyond our own short-term interests to the wider set of obligations we have to each other in order for America to succeed."

Their patriotic duty was to tip off the bankers so they could buy and then bonus themselves the profits!

Jamie Dimon was summoned to the White House two weeks before Soros on March 3, to meet with Bo on March 4 and 11. He was the White House point man to front run Goldman. On March 4 the market went up 2.5%, and the day after the March 11 meeting, the market popped 4%. So far so good.

Three weeks after Blankfein met with Obama, Goldman went to the bullish camp on April 22 when Jan Hatzius, who had previously predicted the next Great Depression, then saw green shoots. They had to cover their shorts, and then get long before they could advertise to the world that Obama had their back.

QE bought PIMCO in to front run mortgages, off of the taxpayers back. The bankers bought who were meeting with Obama. When Mooody's dongraded BAC and WFC in late March, they of course, tipped off their buddies in hedge fund land who had laid out shorts on these names. But the White House had a little more power than Moody's.

And they had a little more power than Fitch. They downgraded Buffett on March 23. At that time I said this:

Maybe a short hedge fund had Fitch's ear, and they needed the market down.

Well we know that they had Moody's ear--but it looks like they had Fitch's also.

But the bankers had Obama's ear! And they were bigger. He gave them their cover. They had to go to the White House, because Rick Santelli was b*tching about the mysterious party that bought all the calls on bonds before Treasury/Bernanke did their Quantitative Easing. Remember that? Who got that call?

And remember the White House shakedown of the bears? It was reported here, on March 4. So none of this is really new news. 

And that was the day Obama talked about the "profit earnings" ratios.

Right after he had the meeting with Jamie Dimon!

And now that we have just a fraction of Obama's log--where then are Timmy Geithner's call log?

But the bankers prove they still have Washington's ear.  Last night, our Government said that the non-performing Commercial Real Estate would still be performing, even if the collateral had fallen below the loan's value!

Federal bank regulators issued guidelines allowing banks to keep loans on their books as "performing" even if the value of the underlying properties have fallen below the loan amount.

The guidelines, released on Friday by agencies including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, provide guidance for bank examiners and financial institutions working with commercial property owners who are "experiencing diminished operating cash flows, depreciated collateral values, or prolonged delays in selling or renting commercial properties."

No cash, no rent, no sales, no problem!

We got your back!

And you got our ear!

White House Visitors Release 2009-10-30                                                                                                                                                

Barron's Big Money Poll

The soundbites from the bears:

John Williams
of Shadow  Government Statistics:

Thus, the estimable John Williams, proprietor of Shadow Government Statistics, reckons that a full 92% of the apparent 3.5% growth in the third quarter's GDP came from one-time stimulants, mostly courtesy, directly or indirectly, of Uncle Sam. Here's how he breaks down those nonrecurring contributions: 1.7% from auto sales (goosed by "cash for clunkers"); 0.6% from new residential construction (the rush of first-time home buyers to get in under the fast-approaching deadline on the $8,000 tax credit) and a 0.9% gain from a largely involuntary inventory buildup.

David Rosenberg:

AS A KIND OF POSTSCRIPT TO THE ABOVE are some to-the-point comments by David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff. Like John Williams, Dave observes that if it weren't for the government's generosity via its stimulus exertions, real GDP in the September quarter would have gone nowhere. But he also fingers the housing and auto subsidies as causing the personal savings rate to fall precipitously, to 3.3% from 4.9% in the previous three months.

In the past quarter-century, there have been only four other instances when savings have fallen so much in a single quarter. Except for that plunge, he says, "real GDP would have contracted fractionally." Put another way, all of the quarterly gain in GDP "was funded by a rundown in the savings rate that occurs less than 5% of the time."

Which leads him to the contradiction between what might be dubbed Wall Street's frenetic take on the supposed economic rebound versus the considerably more tepid view of the men and women who run America's business. If companies, both financial and non-financial, are big believers in this new post-recession V-shaped recovery that seems to have the hedge funds and most strategists so excited, Dave asks, why are they still cutting back on capital expenditures (which declined, for the fifth straight quarter) and continuing to slice inventories ($130 billion worth), and why are banks still so tight-fisted about lending, which has been contracting at an unprecedented 15% annual rate?

Here's the poll and the soundbites from the Big Money Managers:

The stock market:

  • POLL PARTICIPANTS EXPECT three industry sectors to outperform in the next six to 12 months: technology, energy and health care

  • Nearly 60% of the professional investment managers responding to Barron's fall Big Money poll say they are bullish or very bullish

  •  Today's bullish investors see the major stock indexes making steady progress through next June, amid signs the U.S. economy is on the mend after a searing recession.

  • Thirteen percent of those responding to our fall poll say they are bearish about the stock market's prospects through next June, while 28% say they're on the fence.

  • As for the poorest performers, the managers finger financials and consumer-cyclical shares. 

  • "Companies have cut expenses much faster and much deeper than in the past. That means any increase in revenue will drop to the bottom line faster than in the past. What's going to make this drive come alive is a return of the consumer."

  • Our correspondents aren't thrilled with the government's actions either; 65% say they disapprove of the administration's moves to date.

  • Bernie Madoff: Mary Shapiro was a "dear friend"

    Well, she did appoint Bernie Madoff's son Mark to serve on the board of the National Adjudicatory Council--that reviews disiplinary decisions by FINRA.

    Shapiro also signed Madoff's 1992 order with Avellino and Bienes.

    Kotz, who interviewed Madoff, said he found no evidence that Madoff had a close relationship with Mary Shapiro.

    But Shapiro is a proven lightweight. She said "We all know compensation drives behavior" but she's done nothing about it--and proved that as she negotiated the $33 million settlement for BAC's bonus imbroglio with Merrill Lynch, that was promptly rejected by Judge Rakoff.

    But that's Wall Street's version of Weekend at Bernies and There's Something about Mary.

    Hollywood is still safe.

    Friday, October 30, 2009

    Richard Russell commentary

    Some great commentary by Richard Russell on Thursday after the close. I used his charts a few days ago, and I thought the charts were telling "lies." This time it didn't.

    Every time in this market, we needed to buy the breakdown. This time it didn't hold.

    I've been whipsawed these last few days, and that normally happens at turning points.

    So it's time for a skeptical viewpoint from Richard Russell:

    October 29, 2009 -- "Struggling business owners and millions of unemployed Americans may not believe it, but the government expects to report today that the US economy turned a corner and resumed growth in the third quarter in what would mark the end to the worst recession since World War II." -- from the front page of today's Los Angeles Times

    The recent weakness in the stock market has an important significance. The weakening market implies that the Obama administration is failing to halt or reverse the primary bear trend. If the Bernanke-Geithner-Obama team fails to halt the bear market, it means that the forces of world deflation will dominate. This is the reason why gold declines when the stock market weakens or declines.

    We are now watching one of two possibilities. The frustrating part of it is that at this time there is absolutely no way of knowing which of the two scenarios is the correct one. Personally, I favor the first scenario which I will now describe.

    (1) The primary trend of the stock market and the economy remains bearish. The advance from the March lows represents a correction or a rally in the bear market. The rally now appears to be in trouble. In fact, the rally may now be in the process of topping out. If this is indeed a rally in a continuing bear market, then in due time the Dow and the majority of stocks will decline and violate their March lows. If both the Industrials and Transports violate their March lows, it will be a signal that the primary bear market has been reconfirmed. However, if both Averages decline, and then rise to new highs, this will be a very bullish indication. It will be a sign that I have been wrong, and that we are probably in a bull market.

    (2) This is the second possible scenario. A bull market started from the March lows, and the advance from the March lows was the first leg of a new bull market. The first leg of the new bull market may now be in the process of topping out. If so, we will have to monitor the decline very carefully. If the decline develops into a secondary reaction and then halts, what comes next is crucial. Following the decline, if both Averages then head higher and break out to new highs, we will know that we are in a new bull market.

    I might add that either way, if the market now declines substantially, I think it will have the effect of turning investors and consumer sentiment even more fearful than it presently is. In which case, consumers will cut back even more on their buying and at the same time boost their desire to save and reduce their debts.

    Admittedly, the first scenario would be a disaster. The disaster would be -- if the entire advance from the March low were to be wiped out. That would mean that we've been in a primary bear market all along, and that the advance from the March low was simply an upward correction in an ongoing bear market. If so, then it's just a matter of time before the Dow and a majority of stocks break below the March lows, in which case the bear market would be in full force again.

    If the first scenario comes to pass, this would be a disaster, but we must deal what the market gives us. A violation of the March lows by both Industrials and Transports would mean that really hard times lie ahead and that deflation will dominate the US and probably the rest of the world. Furthermore, it would mean that all the trillions that the Obama administration has spent have gone for naught.

    I've said all along that no force or no amount of money can halt or reverse the primary trend, in this case the bear trend. Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, was certain that an unlimited flood of money ("quantitative easing") could turn deflation into inflation. and halt the bear market. So far, all Bernanke's money flood has accomplished is to load the US with the greatest amount of debt taken on by any nation in human history (the law of unintended consequences).

    In the face of the above, what are you and I to do? How do we defend ourselves against government ignorance and stupidity? I've given this matter a lot of thought, and my conclusion is that at this juncture there is no single "correct" answer. My own answer is to diversify. Keep a third of your money in gold or gold ETFs, keep another third in cash or a currency, preferably not US dollars, and keep a final third in a paid-off home. The key to the future may lie in a single word -- intrinsic. Do you own items of intrinsic value? Do you own items that cannot go bankrupt? Along those lines I'm talking about anything that is tangible and that has no debt against it. This may include real estate, land, quality gems with certificates, gold, silver, platinum, your own business.

    Remember, I believe the advance from the March low is in the process of topping out. But we still do not know whether it is a bull market advance that is simply correcting -- or whether we've seen a rally in an ongoing bear market. It's the latter that I'm worried about.

    Dramatic times coming up, and I'll tell you all I know as we go along, which is why I have decided to write a daily site.

    In the meantime, it's "the market gone wild" as bull and bear traders make their moves. The Dow is up 100 points one day, down 100 points the next day. Trying to make anything out of what seems like an erratic "out-of-control" Dow seems hopeless. However, it appears that the Transports have made an important statement in breaking below their preceding low. If the Dow now rallies to new high (high was on Oct. 19, Dow 10092.19) the Transports will probably be far behind. We'll watch for what could be a crucial non-confirmation.

    Below we see the daily charts of the two D-J Averages, as of today's close. Note the dramatic weakness in the Transportation Average -- even after today's big Dow surge.


    Below we see the widely-followed S&P 500. On Wednesday the S&P closed below it most recent bullish trendline.

    The Wilshire 5000 provides a very broad view of the markets, and here the same thing is seen, a Wednesday violation of the rising trend.

    PTI -- My PTI has been declining over recent days and is now just 8 points above its MA. As you can see on the chart below, my PTI has not been this close to its MA in over a year. My PTI is a measure of the internal structure of the market. Sometimes the PTI leads and at other times it is coincident.

    Gold -- Up to now, gold almost "mindlessly" mirrors-in-reverse the action of the dollar -- this occurs even on a daily basis. If the dollar is down today, gold advances and if the dollar is up today, gold declines. I'm holding gold for the long term as a defense against fiat money. In the history of fiat or government-produced paper money, no fiat money in history has ever survived, all are now museum pieces. The reason is that fiat money is produced (without the discipline of gold) in any quantities a government desires. When an economy slows (as now) or when a nation goes to war (which is always wildly expensive, as now) the temptation to print the needed "wealth" becomes overwhelming.

    Eventually, the world distrusts man-made "money." In the end, each new issue of fiat money dies. The fate of the US dollar will be no different. Which is the real reason why we hold gold for the long-term.

    Late Notes: Yesterday's stock market action was unusually poor. Every major stock average but the Dow closed below its 50-day moving average. Investor's Business Daily monitors 197 industry groups. Yesterday not one of these groups finished higher. The result was a severely oversold market, leading to the bounce today. Today, the Dow surged 199 points. Nothing like a big Dow pop to keep investors bullish and happy (remember, the Dow high was 10092). On the NYSE, 546 issues closed higher, 80 lower. UP volume on the NYSE was 88% of up + down volume. The lagging Transports closed up 63 to 3703.

    Of my Big Three, bonds were lower, the Dollar Index was down and Dec. gold closed up 16.60 to 1047.10. Dec. silver was up 41.5 to 16.65, Jan. platinum was up 31.30 to 1338.82. GDX was up 1.92 to 43.80.

    Tomorrow's Friday and the last day of the month. We got through the dreaded September and October months. Will the market cross us up during November and December?

    Signing off...

    The sceptical R-Man

    If you can't beat em, join em!

    Give the bears some due!

    And if you're not short the financials, or short Goldman, or short Wells Fargo, or short Capital One, or short the bullsh*t from Treasury, or Bernanke, or Geither or the stimulus counting job hunters, or this Administration then this market could turn miserable for you.

    Stocks are just commodities. Over the short term, it has very little bearing on what the economy is doing. But when the market smacks you around, you need to listen to it. Because if you're getting smacked around, you're on the wrong side--- you don't know how long, or how hard the selling can get.

    When the market was ready to turn, it didn't matter what bearish story was floated. The market didn't cooperate. Now the bullish stories are spun, and the market doesn't cooperate for the bulls.

    Especially when the HFT's and SLP's have been just playing hot potato with stocks. And especially when they see each other books--and see who is selling!

    They see the order book of the selling. And they are front running the sellers!

    And just like our Government has been playing hot potato with Government statistics, they have been playing hot potato with your stocks. And leaking that information to others.

    You think that they don't know that? This selling speaks volumes.

    Here's a perfect example. Go check out where our "stimulus" jobs are being created right here. Supposedly, 640,000 jobs have been saved by the $160 billion that has been spent.

    What a bunch of croc.

    Play with the website. You'll see it is one of the most inefficient and unwieldy websites that you have ever been on. And it hardly ever works.

    Let's look at an example. Port St. Lucie, FL. Here's a contract that the Obama Administration said that gave the City of Port St. Lucie 36 jobs, in the Ardsley Storm Drainage Improvement.

    Scroll over FL, then over Port St Lucie, and then see what this administration said. $24 million for 36 jobs.

    And then, the press picks it up. 36 jobs! Here it is in the press:

    And 36 construction and administrative jobs were retained for a Port St. Lucie drainage improvement project on Ardsley Drive.

    What did the City of Port St. Lucie say?

    Description of Project: The Ardsley Storm Drainage Improvements project....The City has been forced to lay off over 40 employees within the last year, the design, construction oversight and administrative reporting for this project will help to retain six city employees.

    36 by Obama, 6 by the City of Port St. Lucie.

    Now use that same math, and do that with the bank's earnings.

    Obama math.

    Is it any wonder they are selling?

    Harmon at 40!! As advertised!!

    Finally we get the move!

    Here is their earnings report.

    And today, the jokers from RBC put a target on HAR of 42, instead of 22--now that its 40!

    So today I'm selling it. 23 to 40. I'll leave something for somebody else!

    On their upgrade.

    Just like I sold GRMN when Goldman took it off their Conviction sell list at 38, after it almost doubled in their face.

    That number then tumbled.

    Because stock prices means something on Wall Street.

    Except to the analysts!

    Obama--Stimulus "saved" 650,000 or maybe even 1 million jobs

    Obama could have a career at Goldman Sachs after the White House!

    Remember when they said the stimulus saved 1 million jobs?

    Now it's 650,000.

    Anyone remember why?


    Separately, the White House had to contend with new reports Thursday showing that 30,000 jobs have been directly created or saved by contractors who received money from the $787 billion stimulus package for infrastructure and social programs.

    But don't let the facts get involved in a good spin!

    So we have 650,000 jobs "saved" from $150 billion spent--or $231,000 per job. Or we have 30,000 jobs created from $150 billion spent, or $5 million per job.

    That's Goldman Sachs math.

    Sometimes, the fantasy is always better than real life.

    Because now, we have the real Obama girl.

    I liked the pretend one better!

    She sold Hope better!

    Where were you when Obama was elected?

    Don't ask Bruno.

    He was getting his ass waxed. And bleached.

    And its on video for Obama fans. Here.

    Goldman's Rajat Gupta had side deal with Galleon's Rajaratnam

    Hey, heh, hey, Bloomberg picks up the scent.

    Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Raj Rajaratnam, the billionaire hedge-fund manager accused of insider trading, started an investment firm in 2006 with partners including Rajat Gupta, former head of McKinsey & Co., and Mark Schwartz, ex-chairman of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Asia business.

    Goldman director, Rajat Gupta declined to comment.

    Neither did Goldman spokesman, Lucas Van Praag.

    Pick up NVTL on today's sell-off

    Cautious guidance brought in the sellers this morning.

    NVTL thought some of the demand of MiFi in the latest quarter was inventory stacking.

    They ended the quarter with $5.55 a share in cash.

    So you can buy it for $4 net of cash.

    Russian thug barred entry in the US gets clearance by FBI to meet with--Goldman Sachs

    From the WSJ:

    One of Russia's most powerful tycoons -- barred entry to the U.S. for years due to U.S. government concerns about possible ties to organized crime -- visited the country twice this year under secret arrangements made by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

    Mr. Deripaska used the opportunity of his recent U.S. visits to meet with top executives of U.S. investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    There are rules, and then there are Goldman's rules.

    But give Goldman a hand--even if it's made out of meatlof. (Perfect for a Halloween dinner)

    Even oligarchs need to be bailed out.

    Especially if they can help Goldman understand the supply/demand situation of Aluminum better

    Why hasn't the SEC looked at Goldman's tips to Raj at Galleon?

    In 2001 JP Morgan said this about Galleon: "we should reduce our allocation" to Galleon and the "more negative news about Raj and his cohorts."

    The JP Morgan note also said  "alleges that the principals of Galleon “liked to operate in the ‘grey areas’” of the markets. “If these allegations are true, there are some serious issues about business conduct,” the memo said."

    So who would trade with Raj and Galleon? JPMorgan thought they were a fraud in 2001. None other than Goldman Sachs--who are always able to spot a fraud, unless they are participating in it!

    Or if they were getting paid. And Galleon paid out $250 million for information!

    Although bank policies often prohibit employees from divulging specific information about orders, executives who dealt with Galleon said it regularly received “colour” on market developments, frequently delivered in Wall Street slang. One example would be traders discussing a “page one seller” of shares – a reference to the first page of the Bloomberg list of top holders of listed companies.

    One executive who dealt with Galleon said: “They wanted anything the public did not have. They got various pieces and put them together and that was their edge.” A former Goldman executive who provided services to funds including Galleon said: “They were tough and aggressive. They cared about short-term returns and cared a lot about the impact of their trading and the costs. They expected a lot of market information.”
    But Goldman would never suspect anything wrong with Galleon. After all, they were the tippee! And Galleon paid Goldman hundreds of millions of dollars for those tips. So let's look at Galleon's returns:

    Way higher, and way better and way more consistent than Madoff's fictitious returns. But Raj's were real. The difference?  Galleon had the blessing of Hank Paulson, and the "insight" of Goldman Sachs!

    So if Madoff's consistency was evidence of fraud, why isn't Galleon's?

    Probably because, it would then make Goldman Sachs  in on the fix!

    Because Galleon was in Goldman Sachs huddle, front running other institutions buys and sells, and trading off information that Goldman had, that others didn't!

    How's Raj going to do at trial? Ask Goldman.

    He spent $250 million for "research" from Goldman and Morgan Stanley, yet the prosecutor's case rests on a two bit hack?

    This was just another high frequency, dark pool, front run, paid for, trading program sponsored by Goldman Sachs.

    And instead of an algorithm that stole, it was people at Goldman who betrayed the trust of those who traded at Goldman.

    So why hasn't anyone looked at his relationship with Goldman?

    And who was Fat Raj's dummy at Goldman? 

    Last week, Anil Kumar, 51, and a partner at McKinsey & Co is the one accused of giving Raj Rajaratnam at Galleon information on McKinsey clients. He was a graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology and the Wharton School.

    Rajat Gupta of India, and current independent director at Goldman Sachs, was McKinsey & Company's first managing director born outside of the US. 

    According to the WSJ:

    Mr. Kumar developed a close relationship with Rajat Gupta, an Indian-born McKinsey veteran whose eventual promotion to managing director of the firm's world-wide operations, the first non-Westerner to hold the post, raised the profile of Indians throughout the company.

    Mr. Kumar helped Mr. Gupta launch the Indian School of Business in the southern city of Hyderabad in 1999. The school has tie-ups with international institutions like Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management, and its governing board is stacked with a who's who of prominent Indian executives.

    This week, Mr. Kumar told the Indian School of Business's executive board, of which Mr. Gupta is chairman, that he would take a leave of absence from his role as an adviser.

    Apparently these two are as thick as thieves.

    Just like Goldman and Galleon were.

    I'm sure Goldman will be able to assure us, that Rajat Gupta, a Goldman director, would never of discussed anything improper with Mr. Kumar, who had a propensity to discuss secrets with Raj Rajaratman. I would never even make that assertion.

    Even though  Goldman was paid hundreds of millions of dollars from Raj's Galleon fund.

     Where's Lucas Van Praag when you need him?

    Now I compared Galleon's returns to Madoff's. What did the beneficiary of Madoff, to the tune of $7 billion, Jeffry Picower do, the minute he "found out" Madoff was a fraud?

    He closed the Picower Foundation. Even though he could of easily kept it open. After all, didn't he make $7 billion, that we found out later? He must of wanted it closed!

    What did Raj do immediately after he was accused by prosecutors? Isn't he closing the fund?

    Why did Goldman think Madoff's returns were inconceivable, but Galleon's weren't?

    And why did Raj pay Goldman so much damn money?

    Ask Raj. Or ask Anil.

    But don't ask Goldman. Or the SEC. They just hired a former Goldman cronie as their new COO before Raj got busted.

    You'll just get "no comment."

    Thursday, October 29, 2009

    Morgan Stanley's latest derivative tout

    I just wanted to bring up Morgan Stanley's latest tout from their derivative desk that came out yesterday.

    Here it is, and it's also below:

    We believe that hedging equities in a scenario of dollar strength makes sense, and at the same time find upside plays on exporters a good way to position for a continued dollar decline. As a hedge against potential equity weakness that occurs in tandem with a stronger dollar, we advocate short-term S&P 500 puts that “knock in” if the dollar strengthens, and find that such strategies reduce put option costs by one-third to one-half.

    When derivative desks are creating synthetic products that are cheaper because of another derivative event, you know that trade is played out.

    The idea that our market will only sell off if the dollar weakens is quite frankly yesterday's news.

    Which is why this strategy is now recommended in print by Morgan Stanley.

    This play also contributed to Wednesday's sell-off--oh my--the dollar strengthened--sell stocks!

    Which begs the question. Which bills would you use?

    (The dollar derivative play is on page 9)

    Hot for teacher

    Remember Debra LaFave? The teacher that seduced her student?

    The judge gave her permission to have unsupervised contact with minors.

    Here she is after the judges verdict.

    What do you think she's thinking?

    The anatomy of the sell-off (conjob)

    Monday we had wrong way Nouriel Roubini on CNBC warning the world of the catastrophe yet to happen.

    Tuesday we had David "devil's advocate" Rosenberg on CNBC warning the world of the catastrophe yet to happen.

    On Tuesday we also had these charts by Richard Russell being floated around the Internet, "proving" that the market was about to roll over.


    (1) Too many distribution days.
    (2) The bullish percentage of NYSE stocks in bullish trends is declining (see tomorrow's site).
    (3) The percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 50-day MA is declining (see tomorrow's site).
    (4) The Transportation Average continues to decline (even on days when the Dow is up).
    (5) The Dow is pressing against important resistance at 10,000. The S&P 500 is pressing against important resistance at 1100. The Nasdaq is pressing against important resistance at 2200. The big even numbers often represent stiff resistance.

    Now Wednesday we have Bill "5,000 Dow" Gross of PIMPCO on CNBC telling us that stocks are hopelessly overpriced and that this time, his call of the top is right on the money.

    Bill Gross does yoga to help him think. Maybe he should lighten up on the headstands, and  walk on his feet, so he doesn't see the world upside down!

    Bill Gross had John Hatzius from Goldman Sachs tag team him, who cut his estimate for Q3 GDP to 2.7%. Ooooooh. Goldman must "know" something!

    It looks like they know something. They knew their prop desk was short and the stock prices had to come in! At least I advertised that here, and here!

    And then, last night, Cramer went on Mad Money and said that "now the correction is here!" He forgot we were in real life, not reel life!

    This morning, we see that SocGen came out with a piece that stocks were hopelessly overvalued, and that the stock drop could turn into a "rout!"

    Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The two-week retreat in global equities may turn into a “rout” after a measure of so-called leading indicators fell, signaling the economic recovery may be peaking, according to Societe Generale SA’s Albert Edwards.

    Morgan Stanley chimed in and said "Stock Market 'Bubble' to End" with this piece:

    Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The global stock market rally, which resembles the bull run between 2003 and 2007, will end as government spending slows after so-called easy money boosted asset prices, according to Morgan Stanley.

    And finally, to even suck in the depressed New Yorkers, whose Yankees got trounced by the Phillies, we saw this piece:

    analysts of the game know Philadelphia’s triumph last night is the worst omen for the economy if history repeats itself.

    Why? Because the Philadelphia Athletics went back-to-back in 1929 and 1930! And wasn't that the start of the Great Depression?

    Maybe the analyst forget to tell Wall Street that Jimmy Fox's nickname was "The Beast." And isn't this the market of the beast?

    So much for anecdotal evidence!

    And finally, Cramer this morning tells the world that the $14 trillion US Economy would puke because SPW, a $2.6 billion dollar company, didn't have visibility, and also because Flowserve had downplayed future expectations last night!

    Then the GDP printed at 3.5%. (btw who advertised 4% Q3 GDP in April when no-one said that was possible?--AS ADVERTISED!!!)

    Right then, the entire bear thesis is OVER!

    But Rick Santelli came on CNBC, and said that GDP figure was a backward looking indicator!

    Thanks for the help boys! I covered my shorts at prices I never should of had!!!

    And that's Wall Street's manipulations.

    But the bears forgot, that Wall Street's chief pimp, Timmy Geithner was speaking before the hallowed  halls of Congress, and he wanted prices higher. After all, his boss, needed to be on the airwaves touting the growth the Government bought!

    So we had an orchestrated sell-off, to help the big boys who were short, and had it going against them.

    If the stock market was wrestling, everyone would know it was phony.

    But Wall Street dresses up their pimps, and trots them out on CNBC, and does their best to convince you, the move is real.

    They want to slaughter you.

    Which is why, I said the script changed.

    And in a couple days, the same charts that were trotted out proving the market was ready to roll over, will be trotted out proving the market is  ready to rally.

    After it already rallies, of course!!

    And after the bears, are once again, slaughtered!

    At least the bears have teeth in the Circus!


    The script changes

    You can't say that 3.5% doesn't matter. Goldman knocked GDP numbers down to 2.7%, and the bears attacked the market, shorting everything.

    Instead, we once again, got the 5.6% correction.

    Anyone playing this pullback, like myself, now won't.

    It's over.

    The bears did the exact same thing on April 20. They attacked the market, and were convinced it would roll over.

    It didn't happen.

    So you can now look at your charts, and the charts will tell you that the market is rolling over, or you can cover your shorts and buy.

    You have to cover. And buy on the 80th anniversay of the 1929 crash!