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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Apple Rocks!!! Start the next leg up!!!


Oh my!!! That wasn't supposed to happen!! AAPL is too strong for even a "sell the news" moment!!

Let's see--We have estimates on AAPL for $13.50 next year, and AAPL always understates numbers by at least 10%--at a minimum. That's $15. And AAPL has $53 a share sin cash. What does that mean? hah! Higher!!

Let's see 15 PE X $15 earnings=225+53 in cash=278!!

But you had the pikers come out with their nonsense. Goldman said the AAPL news was already in the stock. Pssst. Maybe Goldman should take a look at their screen!

They have estimates of $12.50. Read it here on page 3.

gsco 26

Deutsche Bank is better. They are at $13.50.

dbabd26

JPM's outlook is here.

jpm26

And the best, finally for last. UBS with a target of 280!! And they say that APPL's guidance is conservative!

Wow! What a surprise!!
ubs26


Now Steve Jobs says the tablet is a big deal. Doesn't at least he have some credibility on the street? Why did Amazon increase royalties to book publishers to 70% for Kindle? Read about that here.



Supposedly publishers are all over this tablet. And it will be substantially less than $1000; which is the number the street expects it to debut at.
  • Apple has been moving very aggressively over the past month and has stepped it up since the event announcement last week.   Both said they'd be surprised if Apple doesn't have a deal of some sort worked out by launch.  This wouldn't necessarily be a nuts-and-bolts type of deal, but one where they agree to work together. Apple can say at the event we've signed up "all of the major publishers".
  • Apple has been pitching itself against Amazon's model specifically to the publishers.  Apple's "Agency model" gives publishers more control and freedom for pricing vs. Amazon who've recently restructured a small part of their publisher offering to compete with this surge by Apple.   We received the exact same wording from both people so we think this is the type of thing that Apple is touting to all publishers.  We might hear about "the Agency Model" vs. Kindle's at the event.
  • Scrollmotion, the biggest current book contributor to the App Store, isn't part of this deal and Apple is dealing directly with the publishers who are already signed up with Scrollmotion.  The deals would cut Scrollmotion out of the loop or as one exec put it: "The smaller outfits are going to get screwed".  We've reached out to Scrollmotion for comment and will report back anything we hear.
  • Apple was looking for content to bring to the event -- perhaps one example -- but doesn't expect to have large libraries of material in their book store until "mid 2010 at the very earliest"
  • Separately, one source said that no prototypes were brought to the meetings, but the tablet was described as "a very-readable 10-inch glass screen smaller in size than the Kindle DX with a similar weight."  The Apple people also mentioned that the "software was the key to the experience and it would be the game changer".  Apple also made the analogy of the shift from B&W televisions to Color with respect to the Kindle vs. the Tablet.
  • One other big thing: They say it isn't going to cost anywhere near $1000 as has been reported elsewhere.
Surprise, surprise, surprise! Time to Gomer Pyle the shorts!

2 comments :

Anonymous said...

Palmoni, an important question: From what I understand, you believe that we will get Quantitative Easing Part 2 and that will drive markets higher. But before QE2 can be implemented, won't the powers-that-be have to cause a big decline in the market to justify it (and within the next few weeks)?? Thanks for your blog!

Palmoni said...

No--the peasants were getting too riled up! So keep the correction at 5%, jam the markets higher, and the masses get mollified!

So much of this is show. Look at Bernanke--now he promises transparency, and the emails show the utter disdain that the bankers have for John Q Public. Look what happens when he sweats losing his job.

There was a really good comment on ZH in regard to the madhedgefund trader in hi sletter about Bernanke

The story started like this

I have spent many years prowling the marbled halls of the capital building in Washington, ambushing politicians in the underground passageway connecting the House and the Senate for off-the-cuff comments, sitting in on off-the-record, deep background interviews, and even occasionally offering some congressional testimony.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/who-ben-bernanke

The first comment

I am convinced, MadHedgeFundTrader, that however well you know your craft, you have no idea what is going on in the real America.

You say "This is why unemployment is now only 10%, instead of 25%."
Actually, real (U6) unemployment is closer to 17%. In many communities, you know, those places where Washington doesn't have any vested interest in showering money, it's well over 25%.

You say "That’s when we see how smart Bernanke really is."
Do you really believe he can "smart" his way through this? Seems to me luck is at least as important as smart. I understand the whole depression:hyperinflation dichotomy and if someone gave me 100 studies telling me when to push the button, it still would boil down to luck.

You say Scott Brown a black swan. Out here in the middle, he is no such thing. Scott Brown is the logical, direct line from event A to event B opening act for an electorate that is absolutely seething. The fact that you view him as a swan says a lot about how out of touch you really are. The main event is gonna blow your mind.

You need to get out more if you want to know what's going on. You need to spend time with people who are different from you. It obviously impresses you that you have access to Congressmen. Big whoop. When was the last time you were in the middle of the country? Ever been to Detroit or Flint? Ever talked to a farmer in Iowa, face to face? Ever talk to a Mexican immigrant in Texas and have him tell you what forced him to leave his home?

I'm sorry chief, but those of us who have to work for a living are not impressed with guys who ask off the cuff comments under the streets of Washington. We know how Congress works. You'd have to be a fool not to know. What we know that guys like you never will is what honest, hardworking Americans are thinking and worrying about and going through. That gives us a perspective you will never have.

Even those who pretend they get it, don't have enough blue collar blood in them, to actually understand the plight of the average American.

And I think that sums it up. We have a sh*tstorm, but no-one is going to let things get where those in power, lose their power.

So you might as well join them--andthe only way to play their game is to play stocks. That's their sop to us.

you know, i disagree with all these bears on the market, but I agree with a lot of what they say

but this country had a revolution in 1776. Now their idea of a revolution is kicking out a democrat in Massachusetts!