Friday, January 1, 2010

The year that was---As advertised!!!!!

Happy New Year!!!!

I suppose it's that time for the report card on the year that was, but we already know that grade, so I'll just give the description that my 1st grade teacher gave me on my first report card--back when A's mattered--Superlative!!

Probably because I'm still a bit foggy from New Year's Eve--which was all A's and totally superlative! Thank you Raemali!

But the first five words that you'll hear from the pundits for this year is "The easy money has already been made."

Well, if it was so easy, why didn't they make it?

So lets look at this pundit!

The Dow closed the year at 10,428. My target for the Dow for 2009 was 10,270. As advertised!

The S&P closed the year at 1115.10. My target for the S&P in this "Harry Crumb" market? It was 1120.92. As advertised again!

Heck you could of bought a Duesenberg with that call!! Who needs Crumb's Auburn?

The NAZ closed up 44% for the year. My prediction? It would be up 43%! Made back in May, when nobody gave a snowball's chance in hell on that bet. Read it and weep bears, because you were smoked!! As advertised again and again!!!

So within a percent on every one. Now, in all fairness you could say that  a prediction made in May or in July was a mid year prediction. So let's look at Wall Street's mid year predictions in 2008.
Here's the one from June 9, 2008, for year-end 2008:

(Committee, Citigroup): 1550
(Joint, Credit Suisse): 1350
(Chadha, Deutsche): 1650
(Kostin, Goldman): 1380
(Gardiner, HSBC): 1450
(Lee, JP Morgan): 1450
(Scott, Lehman): 1630
(Bernstein, Merrill): 1500
(Trennert, Strategas): 1480
(Bianco, UBS): 1650
(O'Grady, Wachovia): 1590

The average was 1516. Seven months later, the SPX closed 2008 at 903.25, an error of 67.8%!

Maybe you want that error rate! Or maybe you want 1%! Or maybe you just want to buy into Wall Street's baloney!!

But did anyone give you the buy on the market at the exact low? At 666? At 9:52 am, that day, on the bottom? Without any equivocation? With ideas and names at the low? And then, pimping it again and again the next few days so you wouldn't forget?

Monday, March 9, 2009

Time to get busy buying!

Didn't anyone listen to Buffett this morning? The spreads in the banks will be enormous.
WFC at 9
USB at 9

How about industrial companies?
IP at 4
GE at 7
AA at 5

How about steel?
X at 17
NUE at 32
AKS at 6

How about oil?
COP at 36

How about a spec in coal?
PCX at 3

How about drilling?
NOV at 25

There is a lot of action in a lot of names, but everyone has their bearish blinders on.

Take them off, and you can see sunlight!
Posted by Palmoni at 9:52 AM

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

We go higher

I'd put another giant bull on the top of this piece, but you got that yesterday.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia strikes!

The fear of 666!

The S&P hit it's low at 666.

The inflation-adjusted return of the S&P from the 1982 bottom, to the 2000 top was 666%.

The return from the Dow's low of the 1987 crash, to the 2000 high was 666%.

And now, 666 strikes again.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Here's what the bull will look like later!

And while we were at that, what was the one stock that people, now in hindsight, wish they would of bought? Wasn't it Bank of America? You had that too!

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Buy Bank of America

Buffett said this Monday morning on CNBC about banking:

BUFFETT: The spreads have never been wider. This is a great time to be in banking, you know, if you just get past the past and they are getting past the past.

Wall Street doesn't buy into it. Wall Street is wrong. Look at BofA's net interest income the last three years:

12/2008 13,106
09/2008 11,642
06/2008 10,621
03/2008 9,991
12/2007 9,164
09/2007 8,615
06/2007 8,386
03/2007 8,268
12/2006 8,599
09/2006 8,586
06/2006 8,630
03/2006 8,776

BAC is trading at $4.79. Does that price reflect the widening spreads that Buffett spoke about?

Look at the calls on BAC. They are way too cheap. The May 5's are only $1.31, and the April 6's are only .59. You have a double and a triple in these numbers within the week. (I'm not advertising the March calls, because I own them.)

For once, Bank of America's advertising is correct.

It's the Bank of Opportunity!

For Wall Street and Main Street!

And just to make sure you wouldn't forget, wasn't tech touted at the bottom also? Right after the 666 low? Before the NAZ moved 80%!!!

Monday, March 16, 2009

Look at tech

Why not? Weren't we told that tech won't lead this market?

Wouldn't it be most frustrating for the bears for these stocks to go up while their earnings are going down? And if tech stocks, with declining earnings will be going up, what will happen to those stocks that still have rising earnings?

They'll be re-appraised on the Wall Street auction!

Does anybody really think that the eBay franchise isn't worth more than the $12 that Wall Street gives it?

We have the bears telling the world that the storage companies are heading into the soup, because the average Joe is packing up his items, and bringing them home.

If this stuff was only good enough for storage, is his stuff only good enough for a yard sale? What's he going to do? Just get buyers from Can you imagine someone swapping a garden hoe for a massage?

The public can't call up Sotheby's like Steven Cohen, and lend their stuff for an exhibit to drum up business, so they need to sell it online. Munch's Madonna and a plastic Virgin Mary statue on Grandma's dresser aren't exactly the same things!

So sell your stuff on eBay, but don't sell the stock.

Because the best part of eBay is that Meg Whitman, and her legacy is gone!
So you got the bottom in the stock market, and you got where it was going. But you also got the sell in bonds. Last New Year's day! At the high! Without any equivocation!

Thursday, January 1, 2009

A New Year's Resolution-Sell your Government paper!!

Sell it!

Sell your 10 year paper!

Sell your 30 year paper!

Sell your 5 year paper! Credit Suisse said to buy 5 year paper two weeks ago. That's a call? Just sell it to them!

Sell your Treasuries! You had a heck of a year. The best since 1995. So just sell them!

Unless you are parking money for security purposes, you should sell it all. Sell them to PIMCO if they are supposedly so bullish on bonds. Sell it to Goldman. Sell it to BlackRock. Sell it to Wellington. Sell it to the fools swarming over this paper. Hit the bids for gosh sakes!

Just go and sell it!

Sell it to those shills that say we are going into deflation like Japan. Lock in interest rate swaps with these Wall Street dealers, who say rates are going to stay down here. Aren't these the same folks that told you oil was going to $27? Did that work? Did anyone notice the action in oil yesterday?

Hell, sell it to Treasury! They say they are going to buy $500 billion of MBS, of which, I find doubtful, so sell it to them.

But just start the New Year right by selling!

And just in case you thought the market was rolling over, at 830 on the S&P I said we were on the next leg up--Just when the bears said we were ready to puke, when in fact the legs were falling off of the bear's stool!

And you had the story on 999, which was the only retest of 666 that the bears would get, since their world was already turned upside down.

And natural gas and oil? You had that too--It's all in this post!!

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Natural Gas

Since Meredith said Goldman has a lot of gas left in their tank, and I've talked about GAS (Grumpy Analyst Syndrome), maybe what really needs to be revisited is natural gas.

Remember when the whole world was buying oil to store it because the future prices were so much higher?

The same situation now exists in natural gas. Look at this article in today's WSJ:

Commodity traders and utilities have been stashing cheap gas in underground storage caverns during the past year. They have been locking in sales of the gas for future delivery at much higher prices on the futures markets or keeping costs low for electric power they produce in the future.
That is sparking a boom for companies that operate certain types of storage facilities, such as one controlled by Houston energy hedge-fund manager John Arnold.
And companies that turn natural gas into the raw material to make plastics, such as Enterprise Products Partners LP in Houston, are enjoying a boost, as crude-oil-based ingredients become pricey compared with gas. The opportunities in a cheap-gas world underscore how operators in the energy business have learned to adapt to a range of market conditions. Some companies are prospering even as natural-gas producers come to the conclusion their fuel may be far cheaper for the foreseeable future. Thanks to huge natural-gas finds over the past year and weak demand in the recession, natural-gas prices have fallen to seven-year lows. Natural gas for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $2.829 per million British thermal units Wednesday, up 2.2 cents, or 0.8%, and off 79% from its high last summer. By November, most energy observers are predicting gas-storage caverns around the U.S. will be full...

Crude oil historically has cost anywhere from six to 12 times more per barrel than natural gas costs per million British thermal units, a measurement of energy. As of last Friday, Nymex crude closed at a price 37 times higher than a key gas spot-market contract, said Rusty Braziel, managing director of Bentek Energy, a natural-gas research firm in Evergreen, Colo.
Remember when oil was at $37? And the ten year rate was at 37 year lows? And Goldman was pimping oil down to $27.
This blog, on December 18, had a different take on oil:
Oh give me a break. Goldman Sachs says oil can hit $27 a barrel, and then they trot out their spreadsheet this morning that says we will have $1.8 trillion of credit losses, and now we are just halfway through.

Now we have oil with a 37 handle, with the ten year rate at 37 year lows, and no one is beating the drum to buy.... So what do you do with oil here? You buy it. You buy it now. You buy it in size. And you have one of these brokerage firms, who are so bearish on oil, sell you a swap to hedge your fuel costs, so at least then, for once they'll eat their own cooking. $1.8 trillion in losses have you scared? I guess that's a market. I'll take oil here on the 18th. After all isn't 18 the number of life? And there is life in the oil market!

The same situation that existed for oil then, now exists for natural gas. But the nattering nabobs of negativity on natural gas just can't get their handle on these lower prices.

And just like the same folks couldn't get a handle on the 666 bottom, they won't be able to get a handle on natural gas when oil is 37 times more expensive.

Because Wall Street just can't get their hands around wisdom!

The year that was?

It was the year that was, but it was advertised before it happened!!

As Advertised!!!!

And just in case you don't know the numbers of the Universe, 37, 73 and 137, let me remind you of the "Subway Superman" Wesley Autrey who saved a man's life, to start off the 2007 year.

You can see the numbers above his hat with playboy logo on the billboard, and on the W 137th stop, where he did the flop on top of the man, under the 370 ton subway car, saving a man's life.

He traded in his hat for a seat at the State of the Union.

Stock picks?

How about that call!


whydibuy said...

The new years chats have been univerally bearish.

You would think that after a year like 2009, people would be bullish but thats not the case from what I was hearing.

The general theme was one of a renewed plunge after this phony rally.
Some said yes it simply was a rubber band snapback from march but we haven't seen the real bottom in the depression. The heavy talk was were they can get 2% on a cd. No one wanted to invest in stocks at this " extreme overvaluation " level. HHmmmmm.

It all sounded very bullish in the contrarian sense.

palmoni said...

You're right--the "contrarian" call is to be bullish!

Suzanne said...

Palmoni I'm interested in on what you think the Australian market might do/perform in 2010 - cash in bank, real estate, equities? Cheers from Perth Downunder!

Anonymous said...

Excellent web site you've got here.. It's difficult
to find excellent writing like yours these days. I honestly appreciate people like you!

Take care!!

my web-site humax tv recorders