Thursday, January 7, 2010

Monsato tipped higher

Monsanto came out with earnings that were a little punk, but the stock closed up. Today we got an upgrade by Deutsche Bank to 100, with an estimate boost to $3.40 from $3.10. Look for Morgan Stanley to wax positively on this name next.

The story will be--own it for 2011-12.

SmartStax, Corn triple stack pricing, and soybeans with RR2Y (Roundup Ready 2 Yield)  will be the hype points, along with 11 products in the pipeline including Refuge in a Bag.

Ag's in play, so Wall Street will start rounding estimates higher,and MON has a lot of room on a weekly chart.


Anonymous said...

Could you post the Deutsche research?

Palmoni said...

I'll do that later, but here's the info

Monsanto (MON.N),USD86.27 Buy Price Target USD100.00 - - David Begleiter : Tgt $95 to $100. With Q1 historically a break-even quarter, the focus of Monsanto's Q1 release is its R&D pipeline update and the order book for the US growing season. On both of these fronts expectations were exceeded with the R&D pipeline continuing to accelerate as a record 11 projects advanced phases, 2 more than projected, and a strong 2010 order book supportive of share gains in both US corn (1-2 pts) and soybeans (1 pt). Maintain Buy - Q2 roughly in-line. Fewer LatAm acres squeeze seasonally-light seed sales. Monsanto reported a fiscal Q1 loss from operations of $0.02, vs. $0.98 of earnings in Q109, and $0.03 below consensus. Discrete tax items added $0.03. The shortfall (in a seasonally-weak quarter) was led by corn and soybeans due to lower planted acres in Brazil and Argentina (down 15-20%) and a change in Mexico distribution which shifted $40MM of corn earnings to Q4. Roundup results were in-line with branded prices globally within the $10-12/gal expectation. Early ’10 orders remain on-track to support launch targets of 4MM-plus acres for SmartStax corn and 8-10MM acres for Roundup Ready 2 Yield (RR2Y) soybeans. Monsanto maintained ‘10 EPS guidance of $3.10-$3.30, down 25-30% in EPS.