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Friday, January 8, 2010

Is that all you got? Part VIII!


Once again, the bears have nothing! The typical reaction of the bears is typified by Doug Kass, at the www.thestreet.com early this morning after seeing the unemployment numbers:

Dougie chimes in with this calling those (and I'm in that camp) who touted job growth "A Ludicrous Forecast"

Despite the whispers of substantive job growth, the report disappointed. The bulls have price momentum in their favor -- not the prospects, necessarily, of a self-sustaining economic recovery. Ludicrous forecast? Today the remnants defeat the crowd, and the market closes between 1% and 2% lower. We might even learn what it means when the oscillator is stretched.

Bob Marcin chimes in and says this:

The employment data was truly horrible. Not the establishment survey, but rather the household report. Both sources have sampling issues, but the household survey picks up credit constrained small business/self employed, while the establishment survey focuses on big business. This report proves once again that Bernanke's plan to bubble stocks and bonds is not getting liquidity to Main Street. Bernanke thinks 0% interest rates help the little guy. Wrong again Ben.



Maybe the bears should follow the lead of this guy! And at least, get some bull balls!

So let's look at the unemployment rate. I said we would have a gain of 88,000 jobs. It was a George Constanza opposite day! Instead we lost 85,000.  But I thought the Govt. was going to fix the figures, and I used at least a modicum of reasoning. But heck, how does it matter? With these unemployment figures, you can dress it up all you want, but you are really hazarding a guess with all the Government fudging. I made a bad guess and dressed it up Wall Street style. But at least it didn't cost you any money. The fix is in--and it's to the upside with stocks!

But last I checked, the last week I gave 800% winner on calls with WYNN, 400% winner with calls on CMI--which I'm still holding--I'll advertise it when I blow them out, and 10% moves in X and CMI also, and if you bought GOOG on the opening this morning, as I tipped, you got 8 points on that already

What did these pundits give you?

Just more of the same--nothing!

But today you got something from Goldman Sachs. And this year, I'm over bashing Goldman. At least, they give you good research, good ideas, and you can read between the lines of what they say--Even though they'll cut your balls off in trading if they get the chance! (Now that I got that disclosure out of the way, it's time to post their research!) They removed ANF from their conviction buy list. Which means you can pick this number up today. ANF has $22 million of unredeemed gift cards that need to be hit by the end of January--which means that nextmonth the SSS (same store sales) will print a decent number. And ANF has pulled back enough to get in!


GS main 0108                                                                                                                                                       

And Goldman had a nice piece on health care. You should check that out also.

Goldman Sachs Research US Healthcare Medical Technology                                                                                                                                                       

11 comments :

Anonymous said...

do you know why MNI is getting such strong bids lately while LEE has been left behind?

Anonymous said...

Hey Palmoni,

You should take a look at CCME. It was formerly TMI but changed the symbol after the SPAC vote was approved by shareholders. Now the company is forcing the warrant holders to convert into common stock and because of this it's causing an overhang in the common stock price. This over hang should end within a week or two, warrant holders have until Jan 29th to convert or the company buys their warrants for 0.01.

The company has also hired a tier 1accounting firm to represent them and they seem to be shareholder friendly. Take a look at their competitors such as VISN and FMCN and you'll probably agree CCME is a give away at the current price.

If you don't mind me asking, I'm wondering if you have any updates on that Colombian mining co.? I figured they would have released something by now but they sure like to take their time! This company is sure teaching me the art of being patient. Thanks!

palmoni said...

I'm working on a piece about that--by using the info that was publicy available in the SEC filings regarding the asset purchase that is being merged into the shell.

Regarding the merger--heck you do have to be patient--but I'd expect an SEC filing anyday regarding the merger

I don't know why MNI acts so well versus LEE, but I suspect it is that MNI trades so much more volume--it attracts more players

Palmoni said...

i'd expect it today from a timing aspect

Palmoni said...

I'll take a look at CCME--Its a small cap with a sexy story and I love those names that have the warrant overhang

Anonymous said...

I looked at the SEC filings and saw some of the properties in the asset purchase. It seems to describe the Coco Hondo map that you uploaded a while back. Are there going to be more asset purchases or does this cover most of the properties that is held by the holding co.?

You have any idea on how much cash the company will need to start a decent mining operation? I peaked around on the Barrick's website and looked at their Pascua-Lama land in South America. Capex is estimated at $2.8-3.0 billion with proven and probable reserves of 17.8 million ounces of gold and 717 million ounces of silver. I'm not sure if this is a fair comparison to go by.

Sorry for all the questions but I don't have class today and I'm a bit bored :P

Anonymous said...

Palmoni...let me know what you think about CCME...

Anonymous said...

I'm really, really pissed that I didn't scoop up some of those CMI calls.

What the hell?

Palmoni said...

They'll develop smaller properties first where they'll just need $20-$50 million to get them going

Anonymous said...

The nice thing about being the token bear is that you get a lot of press coverage when the market pulls back.

See you on CNBC sooner or later, Dougie.

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