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Monday, January 4, 2010

As January goes, so goes the market


If only...say the bears.

So the WSJ has the story:

"Starting this week, it is bellwether time for the stock market.

Historically, the first few trading days of January have been among the strongest for stock performance, because this is when individuals and pension plans add big chunks of new money to retirement accounts. Whether people follow their normal pattern and pump money into stocks in January can be a sign of the market's prospects for the coming weeks, and even for the entire year.

If stocks rise in January, they often finish the year strongly. If stocks are weak during this normally propitious time, stocks tend to do poorly.

Now, investors are worrying about whether the December weakness will carry through into January. If so, it could augur poorly for 2010, or at least for the first months.

What analysts would like to see now is a strong January rally on heavy volume, suggesting investors are pouring new money into U.S. stocks. During much of the Dow's big post-March rally, trading volume has been below-average, suggesting that many investors remain skeptical of U.S. stocks. If volume remains low in January, it would be a further indication of investor doubt."
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The WSJ has missed the entire rally. Do you think they would now become bullish?

So check out this chart. Ooooh. Maybe a 1% move? Give me a break. I can't contain my excitement!

You'd be better off adding all twelve months of the average monthly performance and then using that as the expectation for January instead!

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