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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Where are the Alcoa hand wringers?

Remember that in January? How the smart folks on Wall Street sold every material, every industrial, and every cyclical stock after Alcoa reported? Oh my!

The second derivative trade of a bad company, reporting lousy earnings was to dump anything they could get their hands on.

How did that work out? How smart was that?

It was just stupid.

So once again, the WSJ tees it up with their latest story:

Sure, the flurry of profit-and-loss reports issued every three months is truly kabuki theater, as management usually finds a way to outperform anemic forecasts. Even so, investors should have plenty of questions if they are going to toss more money into this market, with the S&P 500 up 75% since March 2009 lows.

1.) Will sales be strong?
2.) Will they hire?
3.) Is the worst over for the banks?
4.) How healthy is the consumer? 
5.) Whither business spending?
And yet, you still have people fretting over Alcoa's earnings, not realizing that the market has grown up, and their stories now don't matter.

Oh my. Is Alcoa the precursor or the harbinger of things to come?

Oh please, give us a break from this nonsense.

What is 16X 2011 estimates of $95? Isn't that 1520?

So now the bears are so desperate, they want to create a story, because they can't even get the market to come down a couple percent!

But check out US Steel. That number has pulled back, give it a bit more room, and then that number should be ready again.

And Potash--that stock has been accumulated, while the price has been coming down.

Options expire Friday, and they just needed to finish the rinse, wash and repeat of the call buyers!

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