Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Gaussian distribution

Mathematics, statistics, graphing, these are tools to help give us a better understanding of the natural, physical world. They help us use what we do know to extrapolate what we don’t.

For example, if we take this graph, plotting known animal species by weirdness, you’ll see the majority of animals falling within a predictable range of mean weirdness. Mean weirdness is represented on our graph by the muskox.

Of course, the interesting stuff happens a few standard deviations out. Down here at this end we’ve got the least weird animals, your golden retrievers and House Wrens. At the other end, we’ve got the weirdest creatures—pangolins, jellyfishes, platypuses, humans, like that.

Now, if you’ll notice… wait a minute. I’m seeing some anomalies in the data down here at the maximally weird end of the spectrum. Let me just see what happens if we continue these calcula—


Anonymous said...

is MPG a long term bet? or best to cash out after a period of time?

Palmoni said...

i think its a LT bet. MaGuire Sr. tried buying some of their properties last night, while bad mouthing management. Obviously he sees some upside in the properties.

How about Stifel with their fake downgrade last week? All that did, was shake the buyers who do no homework, or have no conviction. Get them out of the stock anyway.

That being done, the stock should now be in better hands. Heck, daytraders can just play this stock alone and make a living!

And if you don't think class A office space will make a recovery in LA, then you will have to believe we are still in a secular LT bear market with a bull market rally!

And that bet, is just dumb.

So what will these folks say when we are at all time highs?

Because that is what is going to be happening--and happening much quicker than they think!!!

whydibuy said...

That maguire can't be too happy just now. sec form 13 shows he sold off about 4 mil shares since jan at 1.5....right in front of the commercial recovery in Ca. and in the stock so far. He definitely has made someone else richer with his sales. OUCH!!! That would make me grumpy too.

Palmoni said...

What you are missing is that the selling of stock by McQuire Sr has no bearing on the company or where it is going. He didn't know if the company would keep the properties, or if he would give the underperforming ones back to the bank.

And what is nice is that while he sold 4 million shares, David Tepper of Appaloosa management bought 4.3 million shares.


And he only made $2.7 billion last year. And he only bought C under 1 and BAC under 3.

The stock is going to 12--you can get on now, or get on later.

So let McQuire be "grumpy" His sale means nothing. He's trying to save the company $60 million by taking these building off their hands???

Give me a break!!!

Double down, before it doubles agin!

whydibuy said...

Its nice that Tepper bought 4 mil shares but that amounted to only about a 7 mil investment out of his multibillion dollar portfolio. Don't make it sound like its such a huge call on Teppers part.

Even if this stock goes to 20, it would be hardly a blip in Teppers holdings.

He also bought that realty co GKK. That looks as toxic as a spent nuclear fuel rod pond. All kinds of commercial paper of questionable value, cdo's, mezzanine loans, etc. Worst of all, it has partnered with your friends at GS.

And we all know GS will bust out their clients if they can profit from it.

Maguires sales could be alot of things. Maybe a view of the co, maybe forced selling due to collateral claims. Who knows whats going on in his private affairs. The filing did mention he had about 5 mil shares of his remaining holdings pledged to Wachovia for collateral.

Palmoni said...

whatever...its now $15 million--so he bought it just for the hell of it?

lets say it goes to 20--which you raise--Do you have another idea that you can get a 6 bagger on?

And i don't think you can discredit the man because you think he has a position that hasn't yet played out to your expectations.

Look at when he bought C and BAC--isn't CRE in that same position --being completely hated and the world being warned by the tinfoil hat crowd that no-one will have to use an office again?

and last I checked, they're really not building in LA are they?

and last I checked didn't the downtown LA Marriott get sold to the Chinese just a couple weeks ago?

So now the Chinese won't take any more properties in LA? Not a good bet to make.

And further, Tepper had to spread his bets around in CRE because 10% position in a bunch of companies at those distressed prices doesn't add up to a whole lot--at least now

but it starts adding up to a whole lot later when it works.

and a whole lot more in bragging rights--buying the bottom in the banks and then buying the bottom in commercial real estate

and then, after he's bought the bottom in the banks, he buys the bottom in commercial property and then, we have people saying that his bottom in the buying of banks doesn't mean anything, and that his buy of the bottom in CRE is just toxic!

I just don't buy that logic!

doesn't anybody think that he who bought the bottom in banks, may actually have a handle on what the banks are saying about commercial property?

the property deals today are not as generous as those just offered two weeks ago

that tells you the market is moving quicker than what people think!

those watching MPG, I suspect, will soon say--why didn't I buy!

and don't think I'm defensive--I'm not personally or at you--I'm just defending my stocks!!

whydibuy said...

No offense taken.

I just have a bad taste in my mouth for investing " names " .

David dreman pounded the table for FRE & FNM for years in Forbes mag. Nearly every article he wrote pumped 'em as a core holding.

Likewise, in the Fall of .07, big fund mgr Rich Pzena stated " FRE is the cheapest stock I have ever seen " at 25.00. Nice call there.

Or when Buffett backstopped a offering by USG at 40.00, down from 100. People said it can't go lower. Buffett was behind it. Oh no? How about 4.00.

Big name Bill Miller loaded up on financials in early '08. OOPS!

Look. Someone is always going to get lucky and time it right. Its inevitable. And of course we forget about the Dremans, the Pzenas or the Millers. And for the moment he will be the investing genius of the day.

But don't tout him as some super genius. Someone is always going to get lucky and buy the bottom tick.

Anonymous said...

thanks for the update Palmoni...so what happens if he does get a hold of the buildings?

also is APWR doomed?

Anonymous said...

what happens if MPG does let Mcquire take the 3 properties he mentioned dtoday? does the stock tank?

Anonymous said...

btw did you know that Meredith Whitney is married to JBL of WWE...Bradshaw? crazy

Palmoni said...

you are right these guys were way wrong and now Miller is heralded as a genius

but that being said--now Pollyanna wins!