Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Why can't you be serious?

I was at a football game with a hedge fund manager, and that was the question he asked me. He said that I've been "uncanningly accurate" on my macro calls on the market, but then he asked me--"Why can't you be serious? And what's with Harry Crumb? And all the women!"

I said, "You mean my 1120 target on the S&P? That's just a Fibonacci retracement."

He said, "You know that--but no-one else does. You need to tell people that."

I said, "Ok, Ok--but you're missing the  nuances--and, at least mine aren't like Rosenberg's! But I'll throw in a picture just so no-one will take me too serious!"

And then today, I stumbled across this great piece by Carter Worth over at Oppenheimer. Check this out. It talks about the gaps on AAPL, that never were filled, and the retracement on the S&P.

It's an outstanding piece. And it also why I'm not bumping my target up on the S&P this year.

People folllow charts, and the story that the charts tell.

And this piece, is one of the best that I've seen in a long time.

Money in Motion                                                                                                                         


Anonymous said...

thanks for posting this...great read and not confusing.

there are quite a few gaps during this run up. do you really think all will be filled?

palmoni said...

No--I don't think they will be filled! I think we just need to consolidate a bit here.

Too many underperforming fund managers not invested.

I was sort of using that piece to show that my "targets" aren't abritary or capricious.

There actually is some thought behind them--and I just thought it was cool that today--one of the most widely regarded technical analysts, mentions the 1121 Fibonacci retracement--Especially because it is now close to it!

I think a lot of Wall Street is just snake oil salesmanship--and that the most important attribute to good trading is an open mind--and not such a firm reliance on technicals or fundamentals--and a puls on human nature.

I think the idea that we will fill the gaps have as much chance as AAPL filling its gaps at 12 14 or 16!. At least that's why I put that piece in there.

In fact, I know so many people now buying puts because they think this is it--we are ready to roll over. I don't see that happening.

You can tell that all we have lately is a sell the news on earnings reaction.

That's the playbook. But now people are looking as though this is the top.

What we really need is a sideways market for a bit. But the bears will probably press it, an dthen they'll puke it up and cover the next day after they have sold!

I don't

palmoni said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Palmoni...never doubted you and i was amazed when i saw those numbers too...i should have praised you in my last post vs just asking whether it will be filled.

good call!