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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Morgan Stanley on the Internet

Another really good information packed look at the Internet--and also at Apple's dominance.

Morgan Stanley Internet Trends                                                                                                                                                

5 comments :

LongShort said...

WTF! Page 62 had no winners !! Yeah Apple to $300 in 12 months

Anonymous said...

Palmoni, I'm actually confused with what happened at end of day? Why the hughe sell off and how did you know to short WFC?

I assume you haven't switched to become a bear yet?

Anonymous said...

Palmoni, I'm actually confused with what happened at end of day? Why the hughe sell off and how did you know to short WFC?

I assume you haven't switched to become a bear yet?

Palmoni said...

It was WFC's morning press release. Here it is now:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wells-Fargo-Reports-Record-Q3-bw-428570216.html?x=0&.v=1

It used to be this

http://search.yahoo.com/404handler?src=finance&fr=404_fin&ref=http%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fq%2Fh%3Fs%3DWFC%26amp%3Bt%3D2009-10-21T08%3A30%3A00-04%3A00%26amp%3Bid%3D35013931&url=http%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fresource-not-found.html

The one this morning is gone! It was only two pages--Maybe I just get the early version.

But BAC press release was over 100 pages. How could WFC get away with two pages? So what were they hiding?

So I shorted it. And then I started to sell some more stuff after lunch.

Sometimes these corrections come out of left field. My thinking was that we would end the year at 1120. At 1100 today we only had 2% more. So I sold down a lot of things I had big gains in.

I felt that we could have a pullback--and after we had the nice rally today, and then when GOOG said they would have music, and then when they started to hit AAPL so quickly--(that I didn't sell)and then the NASDAQ--I lightened up on a lot of stuff that I had big gains--thinking maybe we would pull back here,and then have a end of the year run.

Normally I'm pretty disciplined--but I look at this insider trading with Galleon--and believe me, there is a whole lot more of that going on, and I see the pay cuts going on the TARP firms--and remember last time Wall Street lost jobs--they said we were heading into a depression--maybe something out of left field could happen..

I don't know--but I was just on edge today.

Ballmer from MSFT came out and said that he was worried that the consumer could be in a funk again..Why would he say that? MSFT reports earnings in two days--what's up with that?

I would expect that MSFT should beat estimates--and any surprise would be greeted nicely by the street. But what was up with that?

I think sometimes you just need to sell so you can be clearer thinking in the head. I had to do that today.

And the problem is--WFC just set me off--the trust issue. I just don't trust what I can't understand. I don't trust GS. I don't trust JPM. I don't trust COF. I didn't like Goldman's upgrade of CAT today, or Cramer's sell of DE, and buy of CAT last night on his show.

In fact, I picked up DE at the close and sold CAT at the open--just in case, perennially bullish POT says something positive tomorrow, even though their earnings will probably be punk.

It was really a funky day for me inside. And something just doesn't seem right.

So in a perfect world--we would pull back here. Then rally to 1120 by the end of the year--and then January go up 7% for the month--when all the new money comes in.

But for some unknown reason I'm just worried about the next couple of weeks.

You know, I wear my emotions on my sleeve--but I know a lot of bears that want to attack the market at these levels.

Their franchises are about ready to blow up--and maybe this time, the bulls, with their big gains, may be looking to protect them at these levels, instead of squeezing the last bit of milk out of them.

I don't know. People called me after lunch today--and I told them that I couldn't talk--I was having trust issues on the market--so you better wait until my head clears.

I wish I could put my finger on it but I can't

Anonymous said...

Thanks. I was so busy at work I missed the whole day.

Did you sell out of C, MGM, mgol?