Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Channel checks

You want channel checks? Go to your neighborhood Tractor Supply Company. Ask them how business is.

I can tell you that business is picking up, and it's also picking up in Bass Pro Shops.

But don't say you went in the store to visit it. Say you did a channel check!

Last year, you had a bunch of folk buying guns before Obama would ban them. That wiped out the average guy's discretionary income.

Those buyers are starting to come back.

And if you want to know where the TSCO stores are, just look for the "I voted for McCain/ Palin" signs in the yards of the gentlemen farmers and ranchers.

Then you know you are getting close!


Anonymous said...

Palmoni: are you worried about a possible bond market dislocation that could hurt the market?

Palmoni said...

No but I think bonds need to be sold here.

Bid em up Bill Gross has replaced bid em up Bruce as the buyer of last resort on bonds and Bernanke has kept any debacle in check.

So far.

But crowded trades always end badly. Crowded shorts on stocks eventually will get killed and the crowded trade by the deflationistas in bonds are in for a rude awakening also.

I think the market needs just a bit of a rest here, consolidating around 1100ish but there are so many portfolio managers underperforming they are being forced to buy any dips--thus what normally should happen doesn't.

And look at the crowded shorts protesting!

The crowded shorts offset the bond dislocation possibility!

Anonymous said...

so Palmoni with my PIGSX fund ... should i cash out of this and move it in to Stocks if i have a higher risk appetite?

Palmoni said...

I think the market needs to rest a bit here. In order to go higher we need some consolidation for a base to work off that we can go higher.

I'd wait a bit first.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Palmoni, do you know why AMD is up ... back up to above $6...they were sold off after earnings to $5.5 but now it has roared back

Palmoni said...

Radeon HD 5000--that's my guess gamers love it