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Thursday, September 17, 2009

RIMM breaks out


So we had the break-out yesterday in AAPL and AMZN and GOOG, the four horseman of the NASDAQ.

Which means you need to re-read this piece, but I'll put out a piece of it below. Of course, nobody then, thought the NASDAQ would end the year up over40%, and most of the bears in May were still looking for a pullback!

Now the NASDAQ is already up close to 13% this year. Remember Bill Gross the other day telling us that we were supposed to get used to sub par returns in equities? Well the NAZ could tack on another 30% more this year, so now we are talking of returns north of 40%. Is that Bill Gross' definition of sub par?

Bill Gross is so stuck in mortgages that he couldn't even grasp that concept, even though there's a better than 40% chance of that happening. Why hasn't that been plugged into their variables? (And before you say that's ridiculous, just look at AAPL, GOOG and RIMM and their weighting in the index, and then look at next year's earnings estimates, and add 15% to them because the analysts are too bearish--and now we have 2011 numbers that will hit in 2010, and don't those earnings deserve a higher multiple?--So where do you think stocks are heading? And you want to say that Friday was a manipulation? It was just someone getting a head start on next week's action!)
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But now, we probably have some believers.

Now lets look at RIMM. Remember when the analysts were falling all over themselves downgrading AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and RIMM just a few days off of the bottom? You can read about that here. And just humor me a bit, and read one of my diatribes at the market bottom by these folk.

But don't we need RIMM to go higher to get 40% on the NAZ this year that I advertised?

RIMM reports on September 24. Why wouldn't this name then run before that?

In this market, you chase momentum, just like the bears chase their tail. And RIMM needs to track the number of the earth, which is 296, just like Apple. AAPL's first computer was $666.66 and 6.666666666 cubed =296.296296. But since some of you don't like cubes, lets try division, and divide 296 by 3. Now you have 98.66!

And RIMM needs to get there to get the body temperature of the shorts rising again!

It's the six degrees of seperation of the four horesman of the apocalypse that didn't happen, that supposedly was touted!

Except for those that were short.For them, Armageddon is coming, led by the four horsemen! Do you think the four horsemen aren't coming in this market of the 666 beast?

Wall Street is concerned about money, but the Apocalypse is concerned about your soul. So Providence just needed to awaken folks to this terminology so you won't be caught completely unawares or not know the story! Nothing like making you money to get someone's intereest!

Now maybe you don't like those reasons, but you're not supposed to. After all, we are on Wall Street. So use the Citi upgrade, or think that Goldman knows something about RIMM's number as your excuse.

Because if you remember, when RIMM reported in early April, before those earnings came out, Goldman had some good things to say about RIMM, which was somewhat contra then, to their general position on the economy. They had this to say today: "Remain buyers into earnings on strong demand and attractive valuation."

So now you have a reason you can run with.

2 comments :

Anonymous said...

you are insane with your numbers/divisions/multiplications/square roots

palmoni said...

Not really insane-I was just "making" the numbers say something.

And since I was playing with 6, and we know that six is a perfect number because 1+2+3=6, and 1x2x3=6

And the square root of 1 is 1
and the square root of 2 is 1.4142
and the square root of 3 is 1.7320
and the square root of 6 is 2.4494

So the square roots of these add to 6.595754 or 6.6

The harmonic law, or Kepler's third law of planetary motion states that "The square of the orbital period of a planet is proportional to the cube of the semi-major axis of the orbit."

Distance cubed=period squared

So I can refine this as just raising it to the 3/4 power.

Now let's use a real life example. Jupiter is the sixth planet from the sun. Do the numbers work?

Perfectly.

Here's how.

We measure astronomical distances in astronomical units. So the distance from the earth to the sun, of 93 million miles, or 149,600,000 kilometers is just 1 for simplicity.

But what is the closest planet to the sun? Isn't it Mercury? So what if we make the astronomical unit the distance from Mercury to the Sun? Mercury is 57,910,000 kilometers away. Let's set that as 1. The earth, which is 149,600,000 kilometers away, is now not 1 astronomical unit but 149,600,000/57,910,000 or 2.583 "Mercury units" away from the sun.

Jupiter is 778,300,000 kilometers away from the sun. Divide that by Mercury's distance of 57,910,000 and you get 13.439 "mercury units" from the sun.

Now remember the planetary laws? "The square of the orbital period of the planet is proportional to the cube of the semi-major axis of the orbit?"

The earth in mercury units away from the sun is 2.583. Jupiter is 13.493.

Now I started with 6, and 1+2+3=6, and Jupiter is the sixth planet from the sun.

So I take Earth's distance 2.583 and raise it to the 3/4 power and multiply that by the addition of the square roots of 1+2+3+6

Earth raised to the ¾ power x (square root of 1 + square root of 2 + square root of 3 + square root of 6 )

2.5833 raised ¾ * (1 + 1.4142 + 1.732 + 2.4494)=

2.0376 x (6.59574)=13.439

Which coincidentally, perfectly matches Jupiter's "mercury units" from the sun.

Insanity?

That what makes a market! :)