Custom Search

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

So much for yesterday's selloff


The black swan author, Nassim Taleb, told us this morning, not to take the stock market seriously. I suppose that is what you say when it moves against you.

Mr. Roubini, was also on CNBC, and these individuals were belaboring their circumstances--In other words, their viewpoints are right, but the market is wrong!

So now advertise the double dip, since you missed the rally.

Because isn't that the stopped clock approach?

Because according to these black swans, you can be right and losing money, or wrong and be getting rich.

Can you just imagine how these guys would mark Level III assets in their portfolio?

Since the bears have been advertised in this blog as the market's black swan, it's refreshing that these intellectuals still can't recognize what the bulls already realize.

That they are, as advertised, the market's black swan.

Just spreading sh*t.

4 comments :

Anonymous said...

I always thought the ones who were bearish before the crash would be the first to turn bullish.

Then again, the really knowledgeable people don't get on TV and share what they know!

Anonymous said...

There you go again, lol.

Seriously, you read Denninger, Zero Hedge...

How can you be so sure a market-smashing event isn't right around the corner?

You called the end of the bear market in July 2008.

Oops!

You were wrong then. Why? Why not now?

I recognize you've been dead-on since March. But all the data I've seen suggests this rally is PHONY, the economy is still getting worse, despite the green shoots propaganda, and as such, a day of reckoning looms on the horizon.

You dismiss all this. Please explain why Denninger is wrong, or why his being right is irrelevant.

Love your blog, just would like to understand where the hell you're getting your optimism.

Anonymous said...

Zero Hedge has a slightly negative bias on the data that they present. Not totally bashing on what they report, but you gotta watch what you read sometimes.

Parts of the economy is improving while other parts are still lagging. We had a confidence crisis and investor confidence is slowly coming back.

Palmoni said...

The data isn't actionable.

Look at the latest productivity numbers--what does that indicate?

Doesn't it really just say that workers are overworked?

The next bully pulpit for the White House will be the corporations that aren't hiring--a couple interuptions at town hall meetings is too much for those folks to handle.

Cost cutting will allow hiring--and the circle will fee don itself.

S&P understates the earnings power
and this was June 1--The economy is much stronger now

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2009/06/david-rosenberg-on-fast-money.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2009/06/general-motors-to-be-booted-from-s.html

ie--the loss from GM's earnings wipes out $5-6 billion of real earnings from other companies, which makes the S&P estimates lower than they should of been.

And everyone looks at earnings, while no-one looks at enterprise value

By any metric stocks are cheap-It's just that they're not cheap when you use wrong data.

Here's a perfect example. I talk to a lot of smart people who hate Citigroup. And they can give me 100 reasons why they should be short.

But none of that matters. If the public wants to buy C, they'll buy C--despite the worries from those that are smart.

And the franchise value is ignored, even if the Govt has a hand in it.

You have to be smart enough to dumb down yourself too make money.

And those that are so smart, can't do that, because that trait is anathema to whatever they believe in.

Which is why the bears are the market's black swans.

They can't reconcile their beliefs with the market.

Which is why i throw in things like this

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2009/06/inherit-wind.html

Now I remember what you were talking about in July of 08. I used the Hong Kong model of intervention.

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/07/hedge-funds-role-in-hong-kong-crisis-in.html

Unfortunately, I didn't realize how dumb downed our political hacks were, that they wouldn't be interventionist and allow stocks to completely melt.

I didn't know that AIG would be the conduit to recapitalize the banks!

Now it's the same circumstances but on a different foot. The smart bears don't realize that what they think they see, won't be allowed to happen.

Because our Govt. also learned from their mistakes.

Look at rates--should they really be down here?

They'll be down here, until the banks rid themselves of all the stuff they are still hiding on their balance sheet.

So despite what the bears say--we'll ramp--and we'll ramp huge.

Remember all the problems with pensions etc. They'll go away with higher prices.

The day of the bottom, I said that this was the market bet.

Believe it or not, it's still the same, even though we moved 50% already.

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2009/03/market-bet.html

Now the public, thinks if they bitch about health care, their voice will be heard.

At 1200 S&P no-one will be bitching, and corporation will be hiring.

And the next 20% move up in the market will dramatically effect the economy--and then, the bears will capitulate.

And 999, will remain the retest of 666!

In this upside down world, where being dumber is better than being smart!

Because those "dumb" now, will look a heck of a lot smarter in a few months with the economy's turn!