Sunday, August 16, 2009

What about Bob?

Bob Janjuah of RBS wants to be heard again, and of course, no better than to have another minister of bearishness, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard to bring it to our attention. From the Telegraph:

He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said.

This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250.

This is just stupid talk, but because it's from an intellectual with an agenda, it will get press, even though the chance of it happening is less than zero. Bob's sailing out on the high seas!

Remember four days before the rally started he said, "Be Safe, Be a Survivor, and and Be Liquid" and then he pontificated that China would fall to 1500, and then, as in now, he said the S&P would fall to 500.

So if you didn't know who "Hitler" was yelling at in the video below, who sold stocks at the bottom, you now may have a better idea.

And if you didn't know who the fools were that said that this was just a "bear market rally" you may, now again, have a better idea.

Now remember just a few weeks ago, before this latest rally, how we had other uber bears warning us that the market was going to puke? With their Depression era charts?

And how about a couple months ago on option expiration in June? Remember Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs? Saying we were going to roll-over and die? In June, at option expiration "their" super strategic and highly confidential reports that cost you money (and that's the only thing they do--is they cost you money!) said they were now fully bearish on US stocks. Now less than two weeks after the market bottomed, Charles Biderman said on March at option expiration that the rally could be over. Over!! And expiration in March was going to kill the rally! (And really do these flows really matter? Didn't we have $60B outflow before the bottom, and now we have $57 B inflow--but do these flows measure the shorts that have leaned on stocks?)

It would sure be nice, if someone had a record of that, wouldn't it? Oh that's right. We do. Right here, when it happened.

Biderman said the really was over in March and then over in June--so now it's time to trot out a fresh face! So now we have bearish Bob!

So what's the difference between Biderman and Bob? It's just the same story, dressed up and spun just a little differently, but the only difference is, they think they can average up, and spin their stories because the market is higher, and maybe the sheeple will sell!

These bears can't say "I feel good, I feel great, I feel wonderful" when the market is going up, because then their bearish franchise value becomes diminished.

So they have to talk disaster or Armageddon; otherwise they have to admit they missed the entire rally. So instead of giving us reality, they give us poppycock and popcorn, because their analysis is all fluff, and the script they are touting is only real in their "reel" life!


Anonymous said...

Since all the shitty companies (C, GM, etc) are out of the index... how are we going to make new lows? CSCO, IBM, etc are making money.

Maybe tech companies are sitting on worthless CMBS paper that they are hiding in their off balance sheets :D

Palmoni said...

You're right!

We're not! These bears are just foolish with their arguments.

Yeh--don't the bears wish that!