Thursday, August 13, 2009

Clusterstock goes out on a limb

Check out this headline:

Sorry, There's No Way Oil Runs Back To $150

And the URL reads oil to stay low in 2009.

And then we read this:
Last year’s high prices and the recession have severely damped demand, and the growth of new production capacity, especially in Saudi Arabia, is buoying supplies.

I think it is doubtful that oil stays low.

And if oil goes higher, and so do the drillers, which Wall Street thinks we don't need, but the tape tells us a different story. I think the names go from accumulation to breakout.

Now lets think about the oil play for a moment. What happened, when the Govt. basically told every Tom Dick and Harry hedge fund, that if they stayed short stocks, they were an enemy of the Obama administration?

Didn't we have just a ripping rally? And didn't the market take off the heads of those stubborn folks who remained short?

And now, we are warned that speculators can't play in the oil sandbox, but we had only a one day $5 oil price collapse at the end of July, and then oil bounced the next day, when Goldman came out and pimped oil on July 30.

If oil isn't coming down, and the speculators aren't allowed to play--why is oil still up here?

So here's a cheap way to play higher oil prices, to offset everyone's short position in gasoline, except for those driving the Volt, or the golf carts in The Villages.

I like the RIG Sept 85 calls at $1.05, and I like the Sept 40 calls at $1.35 on NOV, and I like the Sept 60 calls on SLB at .90.

It looks to me like these numbers are getting set up to run; and everytime I mention the drillers to anyone, all I get is eyes rolling in the back of their head.

So maybe those folks will use their eyeballs and now check out this post.

You got a three-pack play for $3.30.

I like those odds.

And hopefully the pictures will allow you to focus your eyes so you won't have to roll them again!


Anonymous said...

I personally think oil is going to reach new highs in the near future. Export supplies are dropping and countries like Mexico who provide USA with oil exports are going to become oil importers! This next decade is going to be a boom for the deepwater drillers.

Palmoni said...

I'll take it!!!