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Friday, December 4, 2009

The rally in the fertilizer (potash) names


Another rally that caught the bulls flat-footed, and dragged in the bears kicking and screaming. But on October 6, when MOS was 46, and POT was 86, I said it was now time for the fertilizer comeback tour.  Now MOS is at 60, and POT is at 120--so what's next?

Higher prices!

Look at the charts. The best move, in this market, since the March bottom, has always been to chase the winners. When the stocks have a move--no-one believes them. This whole move, (when I tout these ag names, and last I checked--people need to eat)---this whole move, all the way up is met with skepticism. But where is resistance on MOS and POT on the charts? Aren't  they way, way higher?

It sure looks that way to me!

Wednesday was the second day of Citi's Ag conference, and they are like Goldman a couple weeks back. They say better things about Potash pricing, but they're still afraid to make a commitment. It's as though these houses feel that there is a direct correlation with the news of today with stock prices today. Life doesn't work that way When these stocks have been accumulated for months on end, and the buyers of these names, now want these numbers marked up, the stocks get marked up!

(In fact, you have to go to Citi's Russia Daily to get a view on potash pricing!--It's on page 6 and 7.)

Russia Daily Market News and Views .12.04.09.                                                                                                                                               

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