I love reading Karl Denninger, because he always comes out with some good insight, and some good reads, and sometimes a good listen before a lot of other people, and he's obviously a real bright guy. He's on YouTube.com as the " Ticker Guy." But that being said, his market insight is completely unactionable. So in that jest, I need to poke a little fun at him tonight, because Karl is out warning the world again about the stock market:
The move the last few weeks has been parabolic, and it will end in tears. The people claiming otherwise are wrong - this sort of move is never sustainable. Examples can be found in 1929 ("Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"), 1999 (Pick an Internet bubble stock - the entire Nasdaq doubled that year!) and more.
Every single one of these ramp jobs has ended in destruction for those who stayed at the party for too long.
Something to think about.
Karl also challenged Paul Krugman by saying there wasn't a snowball's chance of hell that the recession would be over or ended by September 30:
I'll bet you're wrong - not a snowball's chance in hell The Recession is over on or before September. We'll go with the NBER's official claim (even though I'd argue its flawed.)
The loser puts on a clown suit and either shows up at CNBC to wear it and admit they're wrong, or, if CNBC won't have the loser, does it on Youtube.
I disagreed with Karl:
Krugman won't take Karl's bet, but I will!
Because've already had the snowball in hell. That's when Berkshire was downgraded! After all, wasn't his biography "Snowball?"
Obviously, now he won't need to wear a clown suit on CNBC. They'll just need to look at his market predictions.
And then on June 26, with the S&P at 912, Karl asked where was the SEC because someone was manipulating the S&P.
At 912? When you were short? Whose tears now? Did that end badly?
And then on April 11, with the S&P at 860 Karl warned us again that the light at the end of the tunnel was a train.
You want a crocodile without tears? Why don't you re-read this!! And forget about Karl's tears and fears!!
So in honor of Karl, I'll give him Adam Lambert, singing Tears for Fears "Mad World!"
Because he can't get it straight either!