Monday, June 21, 2010

Meredith Whitney blabs the same old story

Double dip in housing and state and local governments are the next shoe to drop.

Wait--I thought the next shoe to drop was FinReg---and now today JPMorgan is buying a Brazilian hedge fund?

Financial reform is over; the audit of the Fed is over.

So what happened to that story by Meredith?

That shoe just went into the closet, with the rest of her stopped clock predictions.


Settembrini said...

Citi not worried either-also expanding hedge.

and last month cramer was saying sell some of your stocks and buy 'safe' stocks with div.--is it now ok to buy 'unsafe' stocks? Why not just hold, or buy on the dips would have been better advice.

X up pretty

but what about V? hold on? will it ever hit past 90 again?

Palmoni said...

V looks good here. Goldman said this about the steel names:

Steel prices could soften further
We expect steel prices to modestly decline in the near-term primarily driven by lower scrap prices. However,
we believe that this soft patch will not last beyond the seasonal summer slowdown as demand should
continue to improve. Scrap flow has already slowed down markedly which should limit the downside, mills
have started to exhibit rationalization, and inventory levels remain low. Although order flow at the mills has
declined as buyers are content since they bought enough steel while prices were on a rise, low levels of
inventories indicate that they will not be able to remain on the sideline for too long.
Mills have once again started to show discipline
Recent announcements of productions cuts in the US and abroad reaffirm our view that steel producers will
remain disciplined to match supply with demand. Overproduction is the least of our worries and we have seen
mills exhibit discipline time after time since 2004. This discipline is not just limited to the US or Europe; even
steel mills in China have curtailed output when supply has exceeded demand.
China may tighten its policy to curtail exports
There have been press reports that Chinese government may reduce export rebates or even impose export
tax to reduce the flow of steel out of China. We believe that such a measure will be very positive for the
global steel sector. We have always maintained that China does not have a competitive cost structure and is
not in a position to become a large sustainable exporter.
What raw material giveth raw material taketh away
A sharp drop in iron ore and scrap prices is the biggest threat to steel prices, in our view. Steel price
increases since early this year have been primarily driven by raw materials, and as spot iron ore prices in
China and scrap prices in the US are sliding, steel prices are on a reversal.
Low cost producers should outperform in the near-term
As scrap prices back off and production volume are reduced, low fixed cost mini-mills like STLD and NUE
(both rated Buy) should be able to weather the storm better than their integrated counterparts. Medium to
longer term, we like X (Buy) due to its

FCX is the best gauge for iron ore and its up 4

Palmoni said...

vertical integration into iron ore.

missed that from the Goldman note at end

Anonymous said...

what do u think of the market here

Palmoni said...

Come in a little-we had a nice rally and now it will probably be digested up here and lower--and the pullback will allow numbers like BUCY to trade higher

So lets see it come in and that will set up trading opportunities

Anonymous said...

Senator Kyl: Obama Told Me He's Not Securing Border on Purpose

Settembrini said...

you were right Palamoni--V did look "good here" at $75.42

V ruuuumbles -now 82.38

Palmoni said...

just in case anyone forgot the rumble note!!!!