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Wednesday, December 9, 2009

When will the fed hike rates?


JPM is on the record for 1H 2011.
GS thinks the Fed will wait until 2012.

So let's disregard this nonsense from those with an agenda, and take a look at reality.

Since the 1950s the Fed has not hiked rates until six months after the unemployment rate has peaked. Furthermore, the unemployment rate has only needed to drop .7% of a percentage point for that to happen.

Ergo, a rate hike could come in April by tax day--but that would be too soon, so Deutsche Bank surmises that the hike comes in August.

I think that scenario is the most plausible of the three outlined above.

Read it here, on page 16, so you don't have to take my word for it.

Trading Focus Dec 09, 09 SA                                                                                                                                               

1 comment :

Anonymous said...

I don't think the Feds will hike rates during an election year... Especially when people are mad :)