Thursday, November 5, 2009

There's a "frenzy in land!"

Ok--so everyone leads their morning research with CSCO. How value added is that giving you a bullish perspective on the stock when everyone can hear John Chambers tout the same old story?

But nobody is talking about this. Buried under the CSCO report, is Citi's trip to SoCal to check on the homebuilders. And there's only one sentence that Whitney Tilson, Meredith Whitney and every other uber bear need to know.

Here it is:

“Frenzy in the Land Market” — All parties suggested that the land market remains tight and one of the private homebuilders observed that “there’s a frenzy in the land market which is hard to explain.”


And how do the bears without fur feel today, who sold and shorted yesterday's ramp?

How about waxed!

Look out when these bulls charge!

As advertised!!


Anonymous said...

how come no love for LIZ and CNO?

Anonymous said...

thanks for the CITI you have access to a lot...

looks like they upgraded CSCO to $28...what are your thoughts on CSCO?

Palmoni said...

CNO has some love--I'll give you the story when I get some time tonite--buried right now in work...

CSCO not much I think we know the story and there isn't much of an edge Highest target on the street is 30--most 26 and 28

Anonymous said...

sounds good...i assume CNO is worth picking up at this level?

Anonymous said...

I would suspect that the land buying is foreign interest. Why the media doesn't see the obvious is amazing. U.S. land is pretty cheap with foreign currencies. And you can buy some of the nicest, choicest parcels in the most pleasant climate zone on the planet, Ca. What is driving Buffetts buying is spilling over into land.

palmoni said...

UBS wasn't real positive on CNO this am--that's todays weakness

I.nitial Take on Decent 3Q09 Results Operating EPS of $0.29 ahead of our/con' $0.22/$0.22—partly on unusuals
Op EPS beat largely driven by a positive $0.07 PFFS risk-adjustment premium true-up. Ex this
a.nd other unusuals, op EPS was closer to $0.24—see Table 1. Net EPS of $0.08; BVPS up 38% q/q; RBC ratio also up modestly
a) Net EPS suffered $(0.10) in net realized inv losses and $(0.11) in tax valuation allowances for
the Wilton Re deal. Credit impairments totalled $(36)M p-t, close to 2Q09 levels. b) BVPS grew
38% q/q to ~$18 on higher bond prices, with AOCI abating to $(0.15)B from $(1.05)B in 2Q. Proforma
pending Paulson equity issuance, adj-BVPS rose an est ~30% q/q to ~$17. c) RBC ratio
g.rew 5 pts q/q to 252%—vs. a bank covenant min that reverts from 200%, to 250% in July ’10. Sales and benefit ratio trends were mixed, but decent
a) Bankers sales (ex PFFS) increased 2% y/y, driven by life and medigap products. Sales at
CIG grew 7% y/y, but declined (12)% at Colonial Penn on less marketing spend. b) Medigap
loss ratios were flattish y/y at Bankers, and better at CIG. Bankers long-term care insurance
loss ratio deteriorated 5-pts q/q to 108%, but improved in the run-off block. Specified disease
l.oss ratio improved q/q and y/y. Valuation—Price target per adjusted BVPS
a) We are adjusting our EPS estimates to reflect actual 3Q09 results, as well as the pending
convertible exchange and $79M Paulson equity raise. We plan to revisit estimates after today’s
10 a.m. ET conference call at +1-888-251-7470 (passcode 37543719). b) Our price target
reflects a material discount to 2Q10E BVPS (ex-AOCI) given credit facility covenant trigger risks
and CNO’s weak operating ROE.

Anonymous said...

great call on NILE...i was out of BP so i couldn't buy...i gave this spec to a friend who was about to buy during the day until he read "online diamond store" lol and decided not too...he missed out.

i guess the UBS has no love for CNO...i'm going to try to get in once my settlement goes in from CSCO...too much day trading in my IRA that triggered

Palmoni said...

Yeh its trading up--and the bumped guidance--so much for that magic bearish report!

I had a good piece on CNO from one of the majors, but I can't seem to find it in my email.

Higher markets will end the bearish thesis on that name