Monday, April 27, 2009

Nouriel Roubini lowers his "depression" odds

Dr. Doom changes his tune, and his name:

No, I am not Dr. Doom. I am Dr. Realist. I don't believe we are going to end up in a near depression. Six months ago I was more worried about an L-shaped near depression. Today, after the very aggressive policy actions taken by the U.S. and other countries, the risk of that near-depression L has been reduced from 30 percent to 15 or 20 percent. We are instead in the middle of a U.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/195053

Less than three weeks ago, Roubini was calling Cramer a buffoon, and saying this:

Roubini said the latest surge is just another bear market rally following the pattern of other rallies after the government intervened. He expects the market will test the previous low because of worse-than-expected macroeconomic news, disappointing earnings and because banks will fail after the stress tests come out.

"Once people get the reality check, than it's going to get ugly again," Roubini said.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/08/roubini-cnbcs-jim-cramer_n_184532.html

Now on March 9, Roubini said that there was a 2/3 chance that the economy would enter a great depression.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598949

Now that story has disappeared off of CNBC's website, except for the headline, "US Recession Could Last up to 36 Months."

So now the odds of a depression have gone from 66% to 20%, and now Dr. Doom wants to change his name!

To Dr. Realist!

Looks like the wrong person got the reality check!

Let me suggest a new moniker for Mr. Roubini on behalf of Mr. Cramer.

Dr. Buffoon!

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