Friday, April 24, 2009

To the day!!!!

Oil is rebounding, and the oil stocks are ready for an explosive move upwards, but no-one seems to want to buy the story, but they better, because the stocks are moving!

It was advertised here, to the day! But this time I gave you a week!

Now next Wednesday, you will see a dramatic decline in crude inventory, and the corresponding start of the next leg up in the oil stocks.

But why would that be unusual? Don't people trade stocks, bonds currencies and oil, and the tech stocks? Wouldn't you like the bottoms and tops in these to make money? How about to the day!

You got the top in bonds, on New Year's day.

Sell it! Sell your 10 year paper! Sell your 30 year paper! Sell your 5 year paper! Credit Suisse said to buy 5 year paper two weeks ago. That's a call? Just sell it to them! Sell your Treasuries! You had a heck of a year. The best since 1995. So just sell them! Sell them to PIMCO if they are supposedly so bullish on bonds. Sell it to Goldman. Sell it to BlackRock. Sell it to Wellington. Sell it to the fools swarming over this paper. Hit the bids for gosh sakes! Just go and sell it!

To the day!

You had the reversal in the dollar, at 1.47 euro.

To the day!

You had the bottom in crude.

So now that we have finally gotten a lower contango in oil, you can now SHORT the bearish ETF DTO that tracks crude, and that gives investors double the short return on oil! When the trend gets choppy, these short ETF's are designed NOT to work. Look at what happened to SKF and URS! So if you like oil at these levels, and with the flattening of the contango, you short the ETF that makes money when crude drops. And just like the bearish financial ETF that didn't work, and just like the bearish real estate ETF that didn't work, you now have a bearish crude ETF that now won't work. Especially now that it has already run in anyone that had shorted it. So only the professionals are left to play in this playground! Join them!

You had the March 9th bottom in stocks.

This weekend, Barron's warned us about Dow 5,000. So what. We go higher. Roubini warned us that the Dow would hit 5,000. So what. We go higher. Meredith Whitney warned us that we will have a $4.7 trillion contraction in credit card loans. So what. We go higher. Trot her out on CNBC and let her pump the bear case. So what. We go higher. Now Roubini and Whitney, aren't the bloggers in the "cottage industry" of bears that I talked about yesterday, but wouldn't a new bull market meaningfully impact these bears? After all, who needs "Dr. Doom" if what we need is "Dr. Boom?" Moody's warned us today about the new "lepers." They have now published a list of "Bottom Rung" companies that are more likely to be first to default. So what. We go higher.

To the day!

You also had the bottom in tech stocks!

Why not? Weren't we told that tech won't lead this market? Wouldn't it be most frustrating for the bears for these stocks to go up while their earnings are going down? And if tech stocks, with declining earnings will be going up, what will happen to those stocks that still have rising earnings? They'll be re-appraised on the Wall Street auction!

And to top it off, I threw in the low of housing.

The numbers on the average home sale price came out today at $165,400. That my friends is the absolute low reading that you will see in this housing cycle, so get on board, or get run over by the train.

To the day!

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