Sunday, April 19, 2009

The cockroach theory

This theory suggests that when a company releases one bit of bad news, there is more bad news to come.

But what happens when you have good news?

Now I had a couple stories on Google last week. The first one, was here, and I'll get to that next. It's Darwin's cockroach after all!

The next one was here:

JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan thinks the tight credit markets will force smaller business to cut back on ad spending. Maybe the smaller businesses, will just get rid of the middleman!

Did that happen?

Google's strength was in smaller businesses. Why is that so difficult Imran Khan to grasp? In fact he asked Google that question during the conference call.

IK: And second question is, my understanding is that you have a pretty large small business customers and with the credit crisis and credit crunch, what kind of impact are you seeing on the small businesses? Are they growing slower than the overall business growth rate?

GOOG: We did see that in the actually small to medium segment that customers actually continued spending and we kind of attribute that to the fact they really see this form of search advertising as a sales channel, as a way to generate leads and as long as they are gaining those leads and customers, they continue to spend.

Google beat numbers without the participation of the large companies advertising budgets. Those budgets will be materially re-assessed positively in the quarters to come. GOOG needs to be bought now, and it should trade up to 440 as I advertised.

The stocks of CBS and the NY Times have moved 60%+ since the middle of March. Do the bears think that this means anything? Maybe advertising might be picking up? Of course, I picked these two numbers because I advertised them here on March 12!

CBS 4.02 (Now 6.70 + 66.66%)
NYT 4.15 (Now 6.71 +61.69%)

It's the race to 6, or 50% on each of these numbers. Buy em both.

Now it's the race to nine!

Now what's with Darwin cockroach?

On the link on the first Google story, you had a picture done for the commemoration of Darwin's birthday, as memorialized by Google.

And I just wanted to memorialize Darwin, with the cockroach, because Charles gave it it's current name.

Yes that creature, that is the same for the last 340 million years. For some reason, it has chosen not to evolve!

Yes that same creature, that is universally despised and hated, that we want to step on, that just creeps people out, for some strange, unbeknown reason!

Maybe your soul is smarter than your brain!

Captain John Smith called this six legged insect Cacarootch, because he mispronounced the Latin version, cucarachas---cuca being caterpillar and rachas being contemptible.

Until Darwin's 1859 book on natural selection, The Origin of Species, the cucaracha was known as a cock-roche. His one sentence in Origin of Species "In Russia the small Asiatic cockroach has everywhere driven before it it's great congener" changed it's name to the current cockroach.

Now you are stepping on the symbol of Charles Darwin's naming rights!

Daniel Evan Weiss wrote an engaging satirical book about cockroaches, The Roaches Have no King, that's quite a good read if you don't get easily offended.

What people don't remember is that he originally published this in England, under a different title.

"Unnatural Selection."

The cockroach does have no king!


Anonymous said...

You guys are quite interesting, even stimulating at times, when you educate those of us who are financial neophytes about the comings and goings of Wall Street. But, may I suggest that you reign in the religion-science dichotomy. First let me thank you for the YouTube link on cockroaches. Having spent many years in Houston, I may have spotted a few I recognized. But your comments about cockroach evolution were amiss. Perhaps there is a paleontologist somewhere who can tell us if something else did evolve from cockroaches. But the fact is these little buggers are ideally suited for there niche. There is always decaying organic matter around. Much of the earth has sufficient standing water. Barring one of those Pre-Cambrian earth covering ice ages the cockroaches have no reason to go extinct.

Palmoni said...

I'm guilty as charged!

A paleontologist could tell me that a cockroach was in "stasis" and that it got it's start from "punctuated equilibrium" so who could argue with that?

So I used Darwin; he was an easier target.

That was my seed!

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