Monday, April 13, 2009

Google earnings due Thursday

I think GOOG is poised to trade up to 440, and that their earnings Thursday will be the catalyst. I sold naked puts, and used that money to buy a smattering of out of the money calls for May on this number, as I think the options are too cheap, especially if the stock is poised to make a major move.

The whole world already knows the so called bad news in GOOG.

Google has already announced layoffs, and cut costs, and that has some on the street spooked. Big deal. Sanford Berstein said that cost cuts are a "really negative signal."

JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan thinks the tight credit markets will force smaller business to cut back on ad spending.

Maybe the smaller businesses, will just get rid of the middleman!

Just because stock investors want somebody on Wall Street to hold their hand, it doesn't mean that small businesses are going to curl up and die.

And who really cares that online spending of ads has flatlined. Has anybody seen the price of ads lately? The slope of those costs are like a slide!

So if ad spending is flat, but cost are going down, doesn't that mean that Google is developing a juggernaut in online ad spending, and selling a whole lot more of ads?

And how about the pet projects that GOOG has already canned? Doesn't anybody think that GOOG can't manage it's own expenses?

And is anybody really talking about Microsoft's cash back programs for ads?

And here's another reason why I like GOOG. There was a piece that flashed on the tape today, quoting the JP Morgan analyst above.

I'm in a hurry, so I don't want to go back and look at the transcripts, but best that I can remember is that Mr. Khan, last quarter asked Google about $129 million of Forex hedging, and what part of it was international versus US.

Well, last I checked, here in the US we don't hedge dollars; but maybe there was a reason for the question, but it just seemed too anal for me, so when I saw the blip on the tape cautioning me about GOOG because the JP Morgan analyst was worried about small business, I bought the calls.

We'll see what happens Thursday night.

But I make my own bed, and sleep in it; so I surely don't need Wall Street telling me how to think!

Or hold my hand!

You're better off just putting your hands over your ears!

And munch on some cheap calls!

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