Thursday, April 30, 2009

The bull's resurrection

I thought I would go back to my Easter post, where I assembled some quotes from the bears on the durability of this market rally. Aren't those quotes looking just a wee bit foolish now?

He is Risen!

Today, a lot of people celebrate the resurrection.

But not on Wall Street.

No-one believes in that resurrection; the one of the bull-market variety!

Check out the following quotes:

Ratigan: Suckers' rally. No question. That's not an indictment of the judgement of the market. That's just my perception of the ability of the banks to function in a timely fashion, the ability to create meaningful amounts of jobs in the immediate future, and the as-yet unrecognized meaningful losses to come in commercial real-estate and other asset classes...

So far this feels like a distribution rally before a retest of the lows. It is the timing of things that is the challenge, and the ability to spot a genuine change in character in the long market trend.

The effect of (1) and (2) is what is known in the investing marketplace as "distribution" - that is, you, the retail bag-holder, wind up with the shares at the end of the day, and the institutional and quant-driven "fast money" departs with your cash. When they stop their high-frequency "pass across the table" game, and they will, you find yourself with some very expensive shares as the floor disappears.

Distribution marks tops, usually very significant ones.

"Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely." These are the words of a quant trader, who is seeing something scary in the capital markets. Scary enough to merit a warning that we could be on the verge of another October 87, August 2007, or January 2008.

It's the question Pilate asked:

"What is truth?" John 18:38

Judging by the numbers of people going to church today, it appears that millions and millions believe in the resurrection.

Maybe Wall Street should learn from the masses.

A little bit of faith, makes the believing easy.

And it comes with it's own rewards!