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Friday, July 16, 2010

Goldman getting sour

US GDP 1.5% in 3Q and 4Q

Earnings of $78 for 2010, $93 for 2011


GS main 0716


Goldman's idea of doing "God's work" doesn't include the death cross. It still scares them.
  • The last time a –ve 55/200-dma cross over took place (55-dma falling through an already declining 200-dma) was in November ‘00.
  • It was an important signal from a LT (multi-month) perspective, however, the averages were re-tested as resistance before the market again fell away.
  • So far things are playing out similarly this time around. The negative 55-/200-dma cross over is in place and the market has come back to test the moving averages as resistance (the downtrend from the April highs and 55-/200-dmas being converged 1,093-1,112). While the market need not fall away again immediately, the similarity of the current setup to November ‘00 is quite striking. Another eventual down move does still appear the most likely outcome.