Thursday, November 18, 2010
The Bear trap is set!!!
Yeh, right! It's just that they have no conviction, and they think the market is telling them a story.
The next day then--instead of selling off--the market gaps up in the morning and runs all day.
The exasperated queasy bulls then wonder how this was able to happen.
Well, why shouldn't it. Yesterday, you had to buy! Which is why I advertised it! Which is why I said the bears would get skinned!
If you didn't buy yesterday's dip--then that means you'll stay on the sidelines today waiting for an entry point.
Which is why the market, then, runs all day!
Overnight you had strength in commodities, and now, we start the Thanksgiving day rally.
Heck, look at the charts of the SPY and the QQQQ's.
Heck--what more did you want?
You had the market given to you on a silver platter!
How about everybody's favorite trader--LVS. Look at that chart.
What more do you need?
That pullback was an absolute gift!
Now I bought calls on all of those names yesterdays, so of course, I'll pimp my book. But at least, I'll tell you what I'm buying, when I'm buying it, and I'll tell you that I'm pimping my positions.
Of course, though, I won't always tell you though when I'm dumping them!
And furthermore, I'm going to be traveling today on the TSA planes. So I knew that today would be a good day, because I would be up in the air.
Because how many times do people say that the market makes a move when there not in?
So then, buy the day before, and then, when it rallies, you won't sell at the first bounce!
Quit being a p*ssy! Get in the game!
And finally, I would like to thank all the people that read this blog.
Yesterday, I had 15,000 hits. Which means at least this blog is picking up some more readers.
Now go pick up the free money!!
Posted by Palmoni at 6:47 AM
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Bulls are going to run today baby!
Great calls yesterday!
Palmoni you are rocking!
Macau stocks: Second policy address and China macro risk There’s been plenty of newsflow for Macau stocks recently, mostly from 2 areas: First, over the last 2-3 days, Macau’s key political officials incl. Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai On gave their annual policy addresses, mentioning they will increase control and regulation of the gaming industry. Second, there’s been a deluge of China macro policy announcements, primarily related to October inflation headlines. Our thoughts on each both are below.
Macau policy: A few tweaks, limited near-term impact
Other than highlighting the risk of investing in a sector with major government influence, we think policy changes were fairly minor. 4 key areas were addressed: 1) table caps remain at 5,500 until 2013 (not new), and increase 3-5% per yr after (new), 2) junket regulation will be increased in 2011, 3) minimum “internal risk controls” will be set for casinos, and 4) newly reclaimed land will be excluded from casino development (not really new).
3-5% table cap growth the main change
The main “actionable” change is the 3-5% increase in tables. This is a slight negative as its more strict than anticipated (at 220 per year), effectively limiting Macau to one casino opening a year. But with 4,834 tables at 3Q10 and only 2 new projects (Galaxy Cotai/Sites 5/6), there should be little change between now and the end of 2013. It could create bottlenecks for Sands’ Sites 3/7/8, Wynn Cotai and MGM Cotai, but operators may be able to shift more tables around as well as adopt a higher use of electronic table games as partial offsets.
China macro: Risks rise, Macau momentum fades
After rising 21.0%/20.5% between 9/1 and 11/8, the HKSE and Shanghai SE are down -7.0%/-10.1% since 11/8. Our Macau index also peaked on 11/8 and is down -12.4% since, suggesting much of the recent stock pressure is macro- related. Risks have clearly risen in Nov. for China, mostly due to responses to liquidity increases from QE2 in the U.S. and higher than expected Oct. inflation. Recent macro announcements include: 1) increased property purchase restrictions, 2) bank reserve requirement increases, and 3) price controls in certain areas including food and commodities. See inside for links to our Macro team’s detailed thoughts on these subjects.
LVS management, for one, remains optimistic... so do we
We had the chance to meet with LVS senior management this week at the G2E Convention in Las Vegas. Big picture, LVS remains optimistic about conditions across Asia, in both Macau and Singapore, despite recent volatility. Development on Macau Sites 5/6 is clearly the near-term focus (4K workers on-site today), but we suspect announcing a new project (Japan, Site 3 or something else?) is a key focus for 2011. We maintain our $50 PO and Buy rating.
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