An irreverent look at Wall Street
Sometimes it is nauseating to be a bull on the market, because people then think you are a Pollyanna on the economy.But you were a Pollyanna on the economy!Remember S&P 1440 by June?You thought housing would turn, CRE would turn, employment would turn!They didn't. Denninger was right, you were wrong.So now what? Do you think the economy will still turn, just that it will take a little while longer? If so then you are still a Pollyanna!No meaningful recovery until a crap-load of debt is deleveraged. And that will crash this market. So let's have it. What's your longer term view? No unicorns please.
I exited the economic recovery V camp at 1190ish on the S&P. So you got the ride from 666. Not bad.And I always talk about the recovery according to Government statistics--which of course, always put the Pollyanna gloss on things.Sure we have a ton of debt that has to be deleveraged --ie defaulted on. And that's happening. But its done at a pace that it won't kill the banks.CRE has turned, employment has somewhat stabilized (according to Government statistics) but the idea that the market will crash--well that's just stupid. Sorry. Corporate profits move the stock market, and corporate profitability remains high on the back of the worker--thus the disconnect.Longer term view---heck I'll give you the view right now. 1023--we won't revisit--I think the lows on this pullback have already been hit.the macro views on the economy are a sideshow on what stocks are going to do.And, Denniger is smart--but he's been wrong on stocks since the bottom.But big deal. his site is an invaluable service to stock investors. he gives you a viewpoint that deserves to be heard.The market is for those who want to bet on their viewpoints. Sometimes you get things right, sometimes you get things wrong.I just express my viewpoints on a blog. You can do whatever you want with them. But maybe, if you're so smart, why don't you put something together and show the world what you have?Sometimes I spend 20 minutes putting something together, sometimes I spend an hour putting out the days posts, but a blog is just a viewpoint. It's not more than that. If you want to get something done, give a job to a busy person. In the real world--we are exceedingly busy. No one has time for pettiness.You want to be petty? Go ahead. But if you're not a Pollyanna on the stock market, you won't make any money.the idea that we will mope around with 1.5-2% returns as the Atlantic stated this week is just nonsense. Rates will stay low--which means mmore stimulus.The market has had its crash already. It's always amazing to me that these thin skinned bearish pundits, only come out after we've had a pullback.They are almost all a bunch of chicken sh*ts. Afraid of the market, afraid of investing, afraid of the boogeyman. heck--I wonder if any of these folks has even had any hardship or adversity in life that they have had to overcome!that statement, of course, is being overly dramatic. But it's as nonsensical as your statement of the market crash.its just foolishness. here's some research for you, since we're in the prediction gameProverbs 26:5use Proverbs 26:4 as a retortAnd that's the market. There are two sides of every issue even for the foolish!!
Don't give up like that gay Jet Blue waiter/waitress. Pollyanna rules!
That was it!!! THAT was the correction!! NOW we go up up up!
Actually I shouldn't make fun. I think Palmoni will be right at some point when the REAL stimulus begins. Keep in mind that gold at 5000 and the Dow at 40000 is possible.
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