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Thursday, August 26, 2010

Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole

Barclay's preview:

  • With the natural splendor of the Grand Tetons as a backdrop, Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver opening remarks on 27th August at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole. His speech is entitled, "The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve's Policy Response."

  • This conference presents Bernanke with an opportunity to clarify the Fed's monetary policy strategy in the face of a significant slowdown in the US recovery. The most recent economic data have been coming in below already modest expectations. This is of particular concern considering that the BEA estimate for Q2 GDP growth, originally reported at an annualized 2.4%, is likely to be cut in half upon revision on 27th August.

  • While we don't expect the Chairman to brace the nation for a "double dip," he may warn that near-term growth could be insufficient to promote a sustained reduction in the country's 9.5% unemployment rate.

  • Turning to the Fed's policy response, perhaps Bernanke will attempt to explain on 27th August what the Fed hopes to achieve, in real economic terms, by targeting a stable level of asset holdings.

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