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Monday, August 30, 2010

Hays: Put your toe in the water

The Most Exciting News of My Vacation Week
 How About Just Sticking Your Toe in the Water??
 By Don R Hays

 Summary: I’m back from vacation, and yes, of course the plane trip to Ireland was delayed andthose air plane seats are still getting smaller and closer together, but Ireland is abeautiful country with beautiful and happy people—maybe it’s the Guinness. But therelief I feel about being home is fantastic. That is not just because of the good oldU.S.A., but because I have a long history of stock markets waiting on my vacation toplummet and crash. It is much more reliable than (what is that name??) the Hindenburg Omen, etc. So, on this bright Monday morning, with my typical jet lag, I’m looking at the news of the past week to catch up.

What was the best news of the week that caused that great market rally on Friday that helped to neuter any vacation market decline? Was it the Bernanke speech, or themore in depth analysis of the GDP revision? Or maybe it was upcoming elections that seem to indicate that Nancy Pelosi’s influence might be taken away. It was a fairly interesting week news wise, but no, none of these rate at the top of my list. The most interesting DISCOVERY came when Jason Goepfert and Mark teamed up to give 98% odds that the next 3 months would be up AND if that 3-month outlook didn’t do it for you, they further amplified that we’re about to enter the best seasonal pattern known to mankind. This impending pattern matches the November to April strong historical pattern with the perfect mid-term election years. 98%???? I know, even those are not good enough odds when you are looking over that cliff being described by the“double-dippers.” The water seems to be pretty cold, and you want to wait until it warms up to really jump in.

We’ve given up on you “jumping in.” The memories of that once-in-a-hundred-yearfinancial collapse and pain of 2008 are too powerful, it seems, for the investor. But….could we just encourage you to stick one toe in???

There are so many great stories emerging from our Psychology, Monetary andValuation reviews, but the flamboyant headlines of “Hindenburgs” and “New Normals”are sending any hopes of rejuvenating optimism deep into the shadows of fear and anxiety.

But…we only want one brave toe to timidly sneak up on today’s opportunity.

Let’s see…let’s just look at this story, and see if we can build up our courage......

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