Thursday, June 11, 2009

The Book of Lies

"Every novel is a book of lies, trying to masquerade as truth."
Brad Metzer The Book of Lies

Didn't Clarence Darrow ask William Jennings Bryan, these questions on the Scopes Monkey trial?

D: Mr. Bryan, do you believe the first Woman was Eve?
B: Yes.
D: Do you believe she was made literally made out of Adam's rib?
B: I do.
D: Did you ever discover where Cain got his wife?
B: No, sir; I leave the agnostics to hunt for her.

If only we had agnostics in the market! They would then be able to see where we are going, or where I'm going with this! Darrow didn't know where Cain got his wife, and the Book of Lies didn't know what weapon Cain used to kill Abel--or the father of Superman's creator!

And it cameto pass, when they were in the field, Cain rose up against Abel his brother, and slew him. Genesis 4:8

What was the weapon? The book's version is decidely different--after all, it's The Book of Lies. For Rembrandt, it was what Samson used to smite the Philistines-- the jawbone of an ass---and so thought Shakespeare, in Hamlet, Act V, Scene 1: "That skull had a tongue in it, and could sing once; how the knave jowls it to the ground, as if it were Cain's jawbone that did the first murder! It might be the pate of a politician, which this ass now o'er-reaches."

However, today we heard from the jawbone of the ass, but this time, it's presence was made known on Wall Street with it's own version of The Book of Lies. They tried to make the market say something that it wasn't telling! Hamlet speaks, "This ass now o'er-reaches!"

Those bearish pressed their bets, hoping to get a print on the chart, that would make their story plausible--that we are poised to rollover, not realizing we are in the Superman market.

Even kryptonite can't kill it.

Because on the Planet Krypton, Superman is known as "Kal-El," the "voice of God."

And he's done speaking through the jawbone of an ass!

It's just the bears "Book of Lies!"


Anonymous said...

Bear lies vs reality
- economies are in recession (GLIs are turning across the world)
- its only an inventory rebuild (consumer confidence is up globally, an early indicator of end demand)
- valuations are rich (on depressed earnings with 1-time losses and low operating leverage)
- mortgage rates are rising (credit spreads, libor at lows)
- bond mkts are not rallying, its only the dumb equity mkt (bonds have rallied with equities)
- smart money is selling the rallies (really smart $ aka paulson is buying mbs, distressed debt, cre)
- mkt is overbought (on this i agree)
- US housing has a massive overhang (possibly but housing in other mkts improving)
- 2H recovery is too optimistic (2H GDP will be +ive and 2010 2-3% globally)
- Baltic index weakening (could see summer pause in china ore imports but china port activity getting better even for exports)
- Its all only getting worse as unemployment increases and credit is tight (autos production will improve, steel inventories worked out, EM consumer is back,ISM new orders indicates industrial demand will improve, property mkts globally improving, even initial claims peaking)

palmoni said...

That's the reward of blogging--To get comments like that.

Smart people, telling how things really are.

X said...

Great blog. Happy to add to my prev list
- MS credit conditions index @ high
- Record 65% of companies think earnings upside ahead
- Railroad: volumes stabilizing
- Semis: inventories depleted. May/June end demand better
- Gold peaking
- Banks: NPL to peak in 3q09
- Asset mgrs: inflows improving
- Autos: cash for clunkers helps, China strong
- China: autos, consumer, air traffic, mkts all strong
- Euro data mixed: ZEW peaking, UK better (but europe is a laggard)

The US mkt is obsessed with levels (950 for now) and missing the turn in the GLIs. Buy EM if not the SPX