Thursday, June 18, 2009

Who's liquidating what?

Yesterday was sloppy. A sloppy test of the 200DMA, while the rest of the market traded sloppier, even though it has already been killed much more than the averages.

I think it was a combination of hedge fund liquidation, option pressure and bears pressing.

When that pressure comes off, the market should rally.

The initial claims were finally a bit better, and you also had 148,000 less people collecting unemployment insurance than the previous week. But doesn't that just mean that their insurance just ran out? After all didn't 45 states have rising claims?

But I don't think it matters. It will be spun positively.

The bears had their fun, and now it's their turn to get frustrated by the market.


Anonymous said...

what's your call on RIMM's earnings tonight? THX

Anonymous said...

something wrong with companies beating their earnings?

Or is the market telling us the bear is back in town?

Anonymous said...

- mortgages jumped,
- RIMM gave bad outlook

Palmoni said...

RIMM's earning weren't was just those pressing the stock down because they wanted people to believe that the good news was already priced in.

My play on RIMM was just shorting some June 70 puts, and buying QQQQ calls.

In other words, I didn't have much skin in the game on RIMM's earnings.

Anonymous said...

RIMM is back up to $76...why and how was this possible?

Palmoni said...

RIMM beat earnings, but those wanting the market down, shorted the stock, to make it appear that good news was priced in. The bulls bought, and fought back, ala ISRG-that day they drove ISRG down to 108, closed 130 the next day. story at link

Same with RIMM. I liked the tone of the analysts comments during the call, even though Cramer didn't like RIMM's earnings.

Tomorrow night AAPL's new iPhone 3G S goes on sale.

Handset weekend.

Palmoni said...

RIMM had 3.8 million new subsribers, some wanted 3.9--They forecast earnings next qusarter of .94 estimates were I think .97.

Knee jerk selling. RIMM is now estimating like AAPL!

Anonymous said...

Looking forward to picking my the new BB TOUR, good analysis Manna, best blog ever.