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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

An open letter to Dennis Kneale at CNBC

Dear Dennis:

I received a comment from your producer Dave, asking me to participate on your show tonight, on my blog. I accepted, however it must of been too late, as I posted a response, and your producer had already left for the day, when I called. I normally write at night, or in the morning, and then I leave this blog alone, because unlike corporate America, I'm not tied to a Blackberry, and I refuse to have emails or posts sent to my phone. I check electronic mail, the same way I check postal mail.

When I get home.

Forgive me for that.

I saw you on your show tonight on CNBC, where supposedly these "bloggers" feared to be on your show. I, however, do not share that trait. Do you really think I fear easily?






In fact, you could say that this blog answers to a higher calling. But could you take a response from someone that says this? Or this? Or this? Even though it was 100% prescient?

Could you handle a person who had this response to the Madoff ponzi scheme?

Could you handle someone who has this take on Shakespeare? Or Superman? Or the Mona Lisa? Or this version of Wall Street truth? It's written, so that the nuances can't be detected, even with an earpiece, two teleprompters or five handlers. You need to know, to know what it means, and what it reads, is not what it says!

But on the market, I am crystal clear. Oil, bonds and stocks. Isn't that what CNBC viewers trade?

So I ask you:

Did anyone at CNBC say to sell every one of your bonds on January 1, at the exact top for a New Year's resolution? How clear was that?

Did anyone on CNBC tell you to buy oil, when your CNBC guest on 12/19/2008 said it would go to $17.85?

Or give you the play at the exact bottom in crude with the shortsale of double short crude ETF? It was only 155 points in just over two months!

Or cleary explain Goldman's oil position posturing?

I didn't see that on CNBC.

But you saw it here.

You had the bottom of the stock market at 666, the day it happened. You only had four 300% winners, and three 200% winners from that post alone.

I didn't see that on CNBC. But you saw it here.

And for emphasis, another 666 "Number of the Beast" post the next day after the market bottom. Even though it was 100% accurate, and 100% prescient, could you really handle the leprosy argument, or the evisceration of the bears sacred leaders?

That call would of made someone's year. I didn't see it on CNBC. But you saw it here.

And another on March 11. Heaven help you if you read it--I said "Lazarus come forth!"

Or this response to "wet brain" three days after the bottom in the market?

Has anyone on the history of CNBC ever had three week results that looked like this?

Or two 400% plays in three days?

Did anyone at CNBC call the second leg up on this market, after the first consolidation at S&P 830 on this market the day it happened? With a stool check?

Did we see anything remotely like that on CNBC? But you had it. Here.

Too many posts to read? Here's one--To the day. I'll make it easy.

Now I talk fast, and think quicker, so I blog so I'm not misunderstood. However, I still have that faulty genetic trait, that also befalls those that make the news, or report on it.

Publicity is good.

So I'm interested, to spar with you, even though we are more likely on the same page, despite the sh*t I gave you the other day.

And I commend you for doing a good job disposing of the blogger on your show tonight. I'd expect no less from Gator Nation.

But why don't you take on a real fight?

Comment me, Dave or Dennis, and I'll call you.

Or I'll call your television blogger bluff!

And if you don't, I'd still buy you a beer at the Swamp.

Because I've been in the real ones up in 'Nole country, and I prefer playing at home!

13 comments :

X said...

CNBC is a joke, a scam. Dont get sucked in to being on any show. They will not let you talk. Maybe John Stewart

Romeo Tango said...

While you're posting your "genius" calls, who wrote these pieces of greatness?

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/10/world-stock-markets-are-on-sale.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-about-suntrust.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/10/this-will-be-rally-that-no-one-will.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/09/shorts-new-story-hah.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/09/take-some-dryships.html (HAH! there's a reason some stocks trade at "4x earnings" - they're called cyclicals, and sometimes earnings go DOWN)

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/09/this-bodacious-rally-will-head-butt.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/09/seeing-some-bottoms.html


And that's what i found in about 5 minutes time...Listen man, it appears as though you've written some good posts since March. But you were saying the same things in Sept, Oct & Nov, and as well as late '07. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Anonymous said...

Romeo, you are right bro! He is just one wildly bullish Dodo!

X said...

Romeo and Anonymous are probably getting raped today

Palmoni said...

"Greatness" comes from mistakes my friends, and I've made enough to learn. That's why this year has been so good.

And I didn't understand the extent of the theivery and the depth of the treachery of Wall Street in late 2008.

At least now I do.

Back then, the ones who did, however, were the same ones who were selling it.

Those on the inside who knew. It didn't work for those who relied on SEC filings for their information, and assumed that corporate executives told the truth.

It was a good lesson to learn.

You bring up DRYS. At least I learned on DRYS.
http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/12/dryships-scams-continue.html

Will you bears learn?

Maybe you have been given everything on a silver spoon, so you've never had to worry about making a bad call, or you've never had to fight for anything in your life.

I'm not in that "rarified" air.

Ive learned the hard way.

Now that the shoe is on the other foot, you bearish prognosticators take umbrage when you get your brows beat in by the bulls.

Some bloggers, use Fight Club pseudonyms, and some, bloggers are just fighters.

And I can take a lot of knocks.

Maybe some other folks can't.

Anonymous said...

X - i laugh at you. What is being raped today is X, down more than 1.5%. I know you both like it. Congrats on it. Just keep your ass tight.

Anonymous said...

It's a damn shame that so many folks that read your blog take good advice as a personal affront. As always, a good measure of ones effectiveness comes from the feedback of the contrarians. From what I can surmise based on the shrill comments posted here, a lot of folks are spending way too much time trying to find delight in either a real or perceived failure on your part. Your hitting a nerve, and they don't like it. Means your doing something right. Keep this up, and we may end up having the blogosphere version of the "fairness act" surface somewhere...

Keep up the great blogging. Reasonable people engage in reasonable behavior, and any reasonable individual understands that market forecasting has always been accompanied by this consistency - most of the time it's wrong.

Your response to both Romeo and Anonymous speaks more toward your integrity, which probably will piss them off even more. The nature of the internet has a tendency of creating verbal "beer muscles", with a lot of "sound bite" responses and verbal sparring - rather than intelligent discourse.

I appreciate the advice herein, and I know that many other folks whom I have recommended following Wall Street Manna do also.

Peeler

Romeo Tango said...

X - no, i didnt get "raped" yesterday (*off topic note below). you confuse me pointing out the author's follies with being a permabear and even assuming my positions are 100% short. i'm a trader. i own some stocks, i am short some stocks, i am long some puts, and i'm short some puts. i did just fine yesterday, and i'm doing even better this morning.

i am looking at all the evidence around me and think the current situation is dire, and in fact so bad that investor's minds are incapable of fully digesting and assimilating the situation. i'd say a full 75-80% of market participants today have only been involved in the market since 1982, the beginning of the longest & sharpest bull market in history. their "golden cross" and valuation analysis only goes back to 1980. their mindset only tells them to "buy the dips" b/c it has worked so well since then. every recession has been mild & short lived, and saved by the Fed's reduction in rates and further expansion of lending & credit to a consumer that - until recently - was still within their means. I say, this is a balance sheet recession, caused by factors unlike any that we have seen in 80 years. The causes are different, and the resolution will look like nothing we have seen in our times.

to the author, no, it is not clear you have learned anything. your posts are clearly mirroring the same sentiment you had in the fall, during the rally post-bear stearns, and in 2007. your chest is puffing out, as is that of many bulls now feeling safe to come out of hiding. your analysis, from what i can tell, is largely subjective and unsubstantiated. and no, i was not born with a silver spoon and have had to work 200% harder than most to get where I am. in fact, and I have been hesitant to criticize you because, if i understand correctly we hail from the same alma mater.

the fact is, i've been hunting the interweb for "bullish" biased material so that I'm not skewing the info that i'm taking in. simply put, i havent found one blog yet that matches the depth and quality of the analysis done by ZH, Mish, Denninger, Ritholtz, etc (the closest is Todd on Minyanville, who like me, is bearish but plays both sides). The few bulls are largely parrots of Cramer and any other creep on tv, and their ideas are mediocre & unsubstantiated at best. pssst, got a tip for you - Wells Fargo & Bank of America - ever heard of em?





* the word "rape" is tossed around just way too much these days. the more its used, the more insenstive people become to it. its an awful thing and i'm lucky that i know noone it has happy too - and anyone that would do it is lucky they havent touched anyone i know.

Palmoni said...

Romeo:

I'm glad the commentators laid off Shakespeare..."O Romeo, that she were, O that she were/an open-arse and thou a popp'rin'pear"

When the data isn't leaning your way, you need to be somewhat subjective in the interpretation of new data--isn't the market forward looking, and isn't that really how they work?

Data is mined to back up their conclusions. ie--where is the data that backs up Goldman's oil price target?

How about last year? When oil was bubbling? Didn't you have that info here?

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/08/oil-speculators-everywhere.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/10/has-anybody-seen-opec.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/07/14-million-for-license-plate.html

http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2008/08/more-speculators-in-oil.html

The point is, that roadmap was easy to find, but the price of oil was pimped by the firms. If you shorted it at $90, even though you had the information, you were hauled out on a stretcher.

It's the same with your data today.

Go ahead, and lay out your shorts because of the balance sheet recession, with their once in a lifetime factors, and it's different this time argument...Maybe you can be confident with your data to augment your argument and position.

But your argument, isn't new, and this time, the PTB also understand it. Didn't Yellen say rates would be low for years? That's why this time it isn't different this time, even though so much wealth has been taken away.

And do you think anyone really believes the "buy the dips" argument? No-one buys that.

Since the stock market bottomed at 666, wouldn't you think empirically that the unemployment data would be at least a bit better than what we have seen?

You could be right on the data, and wrong on the stocks.

The people I know, trade the ETF's, oil, the futures, and they are constantly screening for the fallen stocks that have gotten completely crushed beyond recognition, looking to see if the dreck that Wall Street says it is, is or isn't.

And we are all selling calls against our long positions, and we are selling puts against stocks that we want to buy, because we now need a margin of safety, because some premises that we based this market rally on, are starting to fall apart.

Heck, I bought X at 36, but now my basis is already at 33--but someone keeps bringing up X, because it's under 36.

I think that sometimes these blogs, get like talk radio, as that one commentator said--beer muscles!

But let's look at the bloggers you cite with the depth and quality of their analysis.

It would of been really difficult to make any money off of them since March 9.

But they are still great blogs.

So doesn't that mean, you have to be careful about your data?

I understand trading though. I've done it since 81--and I don't wish ill on anyone that trades, unless they are just gunning the prop desks!

And I still hope you rip somebody on the other end of your trades. I don't care if you agree or disagree with me--I just hope you make money.

The trading community is still one of the best and most interesting group of people most will ever meet.

And if you can take it, from the prop desks the better.

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