Saturday, May 30, 2009
A word on Friday's close
The bears just go crazy when we have these spikes into the close.
Heck, they even have all the numbers. 146,083 contracts on the "electronic" S&P in the last minute, and 91,774 contracts the minute after the close. Another 1,000 S&P's at the close, which is like another 5,000 of the e-minis.
It's amazing how technical and in depth these bears get with their research, trying to defend a position that is just ass backwards.
Manipulation is just screamed by these folks.
"OMG--They printed a break-out on the charts! It's the Plunge Protection Team! It's Goldman Sachs. It's our Governmenet rigging the market. Manipulation! Where's the SEC?"
Oh please. Save it for someone who really cares.
And save the electronic ink for a story that's real.
The bear case isn't real. The market is. And people want in.
It's that simple.
And the market isn't rolling over, as advertised here. In fact, it's heading toward new highs next year. But it's first going to 980, and then 1040. And that move will be quick. Just like the move from 830 to 930 was.
And just like at 830, when we had the bears warning us that the next leg down would be starting, and then they dusted the same story off at 880, and soon we will hear that the next leg down will start at 980. And then 1000 will be resistance, and 10,000 Dow will stop this beast.
We are in a once in a generation bull market, and you think these numbers are going to stop it?
Come on, it will be like a hot knife through butter.
And it surely won't be a Fisher slog!
And Friday's story will soon be forgotten.
Just like people already are forgetting about Ms. Whitney's prognostications, while they watch Professor Roubini lose his credibility, and watch Whitney Tilson lose some book sales, and watch Peter Schiff's non existent new interviews, or James Simons rapidly depleting funds under management (now underperforming the S&P by 31%) or any other of these bears with their repeated gusts of folly, who somehow think the stock market is going to be correlated with their world viewpoint, despite the fact that these charlatans can't manipulate the markets with their views.
That's why the only ones who are so worked up about Friday's close are the bears.
The noose just got a little tighter!
Now why don't these bears think about the noose that is around portfolio managers that aren't yet invested in stocks. That are underperforming this market? Or are short?
How much pressure do you think is on them? How much sleep are they getting this weekend? How much tightness do they have on their chest?
Even the famed John Paulson was down in April, and he had massive gold exposure. Advantage Plus was down 5%. The Advantage fund was down 3.1%. We know that he picked up 100 million shares of BAC at 10 on the latest stock offering, so it's clear that even he is scrambling and shifting his portfolio. What else is happening to the other mere mortals in hedge fund land?
It's not a scramble, it's a custerf*ck!
Now the NASDAQ is already up close to 13% this year. Remember Bill Gross the other day telling us that we were supposed to get used to sub par returns in equities? Well the NAZ could tack on another 30% more this year, so now we are talking of returns north of 40%. Is that Bill Gross' definition of sub par?
Bill Gross is so stuck in mortgages that he couldn't even grasp that concept, even though there's a better than 40% chance of that happening. Why hasn't that been plugged into their variables? (And before you say that's ridiculous, just look at AAPL, GOOG and RIMM and their weighting in the index, and then look at next year's earnings estimates, and add 15% to them because the analysts are too bearish--and now we have 2011 numbers that will hit in 2010, and don't those earnings deserve a higher multiple?--So where do you think stocks are heading? And you want to say that Friday was a manipulation? It was just someone getting a head start on next week's action!)
And what will that do to those that are underinvested?
How tight will that noose then get?
And that's the new reality of this market.
Friday, was just a precursor of the things that are starting to come next.
And you can talk about the economy and housing and commercial real estate, and any other statistic you want, but it won't make you a red cent, or a thin dime on Wall Street.
Just like these same folks that come up with these supposedly intelligent and erudite arguments outlining the fraud committed by the "gangsters" on Wall Street who moved the markets a percent or two a couple of minutes before the close. (But boy, it was sure fine, when the "gangsters" could destroy companies and their stock prices. Where were these folks then? Weren't they thumping their chest? Now the only thing between their legs is a tail because they've been neutered!)
When all this move is, is capital being committed at the expense of the shorts pocketbook.
They just don't learn.
Just ask James Simons.
Or his investors.
It's no fun being a "gangster" when the "gangster" looking over your books has an unlimited pocketbook, and a different agenda than these shortsellers.
That's the variable these astrophysicists didn't identify!
And unlike the Cepheid type, they don't want the luminosity!
Posted by Palmoni at 7:02 AM