Tuesday, May 12, 2009

The bears futile attempt to re-assert themselves

Who would want to eat dinner with the bears anyway? I'm sure you would think the image above is photoshopped.

How about a video?

How about National Geographic? Here's the story with some more pictures. He even hangs out with him in the jacuzzi!

That my friends, is the real bear. The bear on Wall Street is of the photo shop variety!

And they were out in force today. Selling technology, selling the financials, and trying to hit the material stocks, until Wall Street realized that this bear had no teeth. It couldn't even be a circus bear!

They just wanted to growl, show some teeth, and pretend they were real!

Give me a break.

Come on, they could attack, because some of the secondaries were just done at outrageous prices. Heck, I even scalped COF for a decent short today, but that was their playbook. Break the print on the secondary, and maybe the world will collapse again!


Too many people want to get in, and too many people are left behind. It almost sounds like a bad Tim LeHaye novel.

But it's just Wall Street fiction.

Let's look at some simple numbers. At S&P 830, I said we were at the second leg up. So we went up 100 points. Does anybody not think the next target is not 1000? The easiest way to get to 1000, is to get under 900 first.

That's Wall Street's version of Jack Nicholson--"The easiest way to get over a girl, is to get under someone else!"

And that's all today was.

This idea that we are going to roll over here is just stupid.

It's as stupid as the stupid selling that was going on by these bears with no teeth.

The selling was so pathetic, it even makes me want to buy Black & Decker (BDK 32.37). Seven days ago the stock was 41. How much of a pullback do you need? After all, Meredith Whitney told us yesterday that retail was the best short on the market. So let me buy something in retail!

So I'll buy a beater from Black & Decker, and use that to fend off the hapless bears.

That's all I'll need!


Anonymous said...

Love the blog. You've been bang on being bullish.
But don't you think the 200 day avg will repel the first run at it and cause at least a 2-3 week, 7-9pct pullback?
It often works like that, after a strong run up.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

hi, today had a chance to be a big bear day but greenspans message brought everything back up.

where are you gathering info to come up with your 4% gdp growth in the 3rd qtr?

Palmoni said...

No, because then we would get the pullback that would allow those who missed the run from 830 a chance to get in.

The whole world would love the pullback. Instead, we'll get these massive rotations.

GDP? First anecdoctal----We know innventories are being worked off. Remember Q4 inventory revision? From +6.2 billion to -19.9 billion? Q4 inventory subtracted .11. Q1 GDP inventory subtracted -2.79! Autos? GM 880K inventory, to 756K, to 525K est by July. With all the shutdowns, we'll work off auto inventory. GDP Q4 auto-2.01, Q1 -1.36 Q3 will have benefit of 2010 model year.

April, housing inventories dropped 3.6%-which means housing bottom is happening quicker and faster than realized. FL, CA, AZ sales much better-the hardest hit are already coming out. Q1 Miami sales up 72%, Ft. Lauderdale +46, Palm Beach up 21% ie examples of ground zero at housing rebounding. Same in Stockton CA. Worst areas now selling like hotcakes.

According to NAR first time homeowners make up 53% of buyers. Don't first time home buyers need things for a new home? Durables.

PCE wasn't a fluke in Q1. Government spending will help Q3. That wasn't in Q1 When final revised Q1 GDP numbers come out-I think May 29, I'll revisit.

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