Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Ag stocks are starting to move

Why did it take so long?

Tonite the WSJ advertised the fertilizer stocks:

Options traders rallied around fertilizer companies Tuesday, hoping stocks in the sector could maintain recent momentum. Activity in Mosaic was particularly robust, with investors picking up 37,000 "calls" that allow them to buy the company's stock and 13,000 "puts" that allow them to sell it, according to Track Data. Much of the trading took place in September $55 calls, which are priced at $4.40 and make money if Mosaic climbs above $59.40 before mid-September. Mosaic's stock closed the session at $47.67, gaining 7%. In Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, meanwhile, investors gravitated toward May $100 calls. Those contracts are priced at $2.95 and make money if Potash climbs above $102.95 before Friday -- about 2% above the closing price of $100.87, up 6.2%.

I advertised these numbers on April 4-and asked you if you were going to get conned by Wall Street:

After all, if Armageddon is supposed to happen, aren't people supposed to be fighting over bird sh*t to eat? Well then, wouldn't it be hard to find people fighting over bird sh*t to eat, when you are already prepared for it and your fallout shelter is already stocked with soup and spam? Now I started this piece with who is selling, before I started my selling, but in that above piece, I said this:

So trade on it! The fertilizers were downgraded the last couple of days by a couple of firms, and it has given you great entry points in Mosaic (MOS 43.93) and Potash (POT 82.93).

Spread the fertilizer on the ground, and discard Wall Street's! The only sh*t you should listen to too, that will make you money, is that espoused from the bulls.

I gave you what I promised. More sh*t from the bulls! So look at the fertilizer stocks, but first look at Monsanto, (MON) which has been smacked around by the analysts the last few days, but it hit 77 Friday, and then did a reversal, right in the analysts face, and closed at $81.26, down just .15 cents on the day. Monsanto's weakness kept people off of the fertilizer plays, but MON's weakness was due to slightly lowered expectations in Round-up. (And MON couldn't juice it's earnings, because they sold their POSILAC to Lilly. That's the hormone that nobody wants to read on their milk jug-BSTE!) Monsanto's seed business was just fine, even though doubt was sowed by the analysts listening! But the fertilizer stocks were weak because after Monsanto reported earnings Thursday, the stock traded to 85, before swooning down to it's low of 77 Friday. It was helped down by JP Morgan, which downgraded the stock. So MON kept a lid on the fertilizer stocks, of which I like. That's Wall Street's misdirection play on fertilizer. Don't get conned, by Wall Street's mosaic! Monsanto is just being used to keep you out of the agriculture stocks!

Today Potash closed at 100.87, Mosaic closed at 47.67 and Monsanto closed at 90.08; and it looks like they are finally safe for the momentum boys to start again chasing these numbers.

Some times Wall Street's stupid selling takes times to work through!

That's because no one was advertises these stocks at the low!

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