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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Didn't buy AAPL at 12? Didn't buy LVS at 2?

Remember when AAPL was selling at $12 with $12 of cash, and they were embarking on their new music venture--the iPod--that was immediately panned by critics? Split adjusted, the stock is now 1155.

Did you catch that 100 bagger?

And now LVS, at 37, because it was 2, is expensive?

Why can't it be a 100 bagger also?

Because when it is a 100 bagger, it will then have a market cap only half of AAPL's.

LVS is an international company, but traders and stock investors are so concerned about making .50 on this stock, on every intraday zig and zag, that they miss the big picture.

But a lot of people missed the big picture in AAPL also!

LVS will make a billion dollars a year in their Singapore casino, and that's where people have to pay $100 to gamble for 24 hours. Or they can buy an annual pass to gamble for $2,000.

The payback on LVS' first casino in Macau was 9 months.


Sands ain't just Vegas, baby!

It's even in Bethlehem, PA!

LVS, continues to be one of the easiest stocks to trade from the long side on the big board, as estimates are continually being raised.

Eventually, people will look out at earnings for 2012 and then give it a multiple of 40-60X and then look at today's stock price and say it is scheap.

And they'll have help.

Because the moronic, idiotic, 44 million shares that are short this name--well Mr. Market is calling for his Marker

And when the bad bet blows up in their face, you'll see faster and quicker highs, as Mr. Market starts giving LVS the multiple it deserves.

After all, shouldn't Sheldon get paid for building a casino in Singapore during the heart of the financial crisis??

So get paid with him!

Just like those who bet with Jobs on AAPL got paid!!



And keep the shorts underwater!!!

Because they never get out of their spreadsheets to get a real view on what makes a good investment!!

10 comments :

Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on MPEL?

Anonymous said...

so P, what do i need to say or ask to get shares to convert?

is there a way i can email you personally to ask a question?

Palmoni said...

i'll put something together

Anonymous said...

BAC

␣Gaming revenue grew 80%+ YoY in the first 4 days According to our channel checks, the gaming revenue for the first four days of the Golden Week should exceed HK$3.5 billion, implying +80%YoY growth. (Recall, the gaming revenue in the similar period last year was MOP1.9 billion).
October is on track to be a record month
The growth was impressive but with only 4 days of data, the number could be affected by extreme win rates and we should not extrapolate. With that said, if we assume the remaining days of October simply maintain the daily average of September (about MOP 510 million a day and as September is a slow month traditionally, we believe our assumption is conservative), October gaming revenue should be at least MPO 17.4 billion, a record high and a 38% increase YoY. The 38% growth is on par with the 40% growth rate we had in August and September.
Prefer Sands China and SJM – the mass market plays
We expect competition in the VIP space to remain intense in the short term. With that, we prefer the mass-market casino operators. We believe SJM and Sands China could be the biggest beneficiaries of a strong Golden Week.

Anonymous said...

MS

Investment conclusion: We recently visited with several management teams and industry contacts in Las Vegas (a completely novel idea). Overall, our views are unchanged, and we remain positive on Singapore and Macau and cautious on Vegas. Our key takeaways:
(1) MBS in Singapore continues to ramp sequentially through 3Q10, and is currently run-rating ~$1.1 bn of EBITDA (almost all from the casino).
(2) Promotional activity in Macau has increased over the past month, but we believe recent market-share concerns have been overblown.
(3) Vegas trends have been better than expected during 3Q. Forward bookings into 1Q11 look strong for the few group-focused properties, but we do not expect a robust recovery in 2011 for the many leisure properties.
Singapore: We believe $220 mn of 3Q10 EBITDA at MBS is possible vs. our estimate of $196M and consensus of ~$180 mn despite potentially lower-than- normal hold. We believe normalized EBITDA could approach $250 mn. We estimate the property is currently run-rating at ~$1.1 bn of annual EBITDA with upside likely once retail and the hotel ramp in 1Q11.
Macau: Most contacts agree that promotional activity in the market has increased over the past 30 days through increased working capital extension to junkets. Despite headline market-share losses for LVS and WYNN (WYNN’s exacerbated by low hold), we do not believe that overall gaming volumes and EBITDA have been impacted materially. We expect LVS to report strong 3Q Macau results due to seasonally strong mass business.
Vegas: 3Q10 was better than feared due to resilient weekend leisure travel. We project sequential seasonal improvements through 1Q11 in LV but reiterate our belief that expectations for a strong recovery in 2011 EBITDA are likely premature. We project minimal EBITDA benefits from improved group demand for the LV Strip as a whole until leisure rates begin to rebound meaningfully. We believe growth in leisure rates will be limited by the combination of new supply, low single-digit visitation growth, and elevated non-cash occupancies.

Anonymous said...

UBS

Sept Macau Revs Up ~40% YOY; Wynn Share May Be Better than Expected
␣ September Macau Revs Up 40% YOY According to industry sources, September Macau gross gaming revenues came in at 15.3bn patacas, or ~US$1.92bn, up ~40% YOY, which is consistent with our estimate and indications last week. While September was 10% below the monthly record of US$2.13bn set in May 2010 and down 3% sequentially (bringing YTD totals +60% YOY), underlying revenue trend was strong in September given it usually is seasonally quieter, coming off the strong summer months and before the big holiday month in October.
␣ September and Q3 Macau Market Shares We believe for September, SJM came in with ~31% market share (vs. 29% in Aug and 30% in Q3), LVS at ~19% (vs. 20% in Aug and 19% in Q3), WYNN at ~12%, better than market share figure reported for the first 26 days of the month (vs. ~14% in Aug and 14% in Q3), Galaxy at 12% (vs. 13% in Aug and 12% in Q3) and MGM at 10% (vs. 8% in Aug and 8% in Q3). For Q3, we believe Wynn ended the quarter with +14%, close to our 14.6% estimate; LVS with 19%, which is inline with our estimate; and MGM with 8%, above our 7% estimate.

Anonymous said...

Thank you!!

Anonymous said...

BAC

Macau gaming revenues increase +40% in September According to the DICJ, gaming revenue rose 40% in Sept. to MOP 15.3B vs. MOP 15.8B in August (+40%) and MOP 16.3B (+70%) in July. On a 2-year basis, revs rose +94% in Sept., vs. +57% in August and +74% in July. Y/Y comparisons remain difficult throughout 2H10 and we expect growth percentages to continue to ease. On an absolute basis, we expect October’s revs to be strong and potentially set a new record helped by Golden Week celebrations from October 1-7.
Market share shift benefits MGM and SJM
According to the Macau Daily Times, there was quite a bit of market share shifting in Sept and final shares are in-line with mid-month market chatter. SJM market share rose 210 bps, to 31% and ended 3Q at 31% (vs. 32% in 2Q). LVS’ share was unchanged at 20% (20% in 3Q vs. 21% in 2Q), Galaxy’s share was unchanged at 13% (13% in 3Q vs 11% in 2Q), MPEL’s share rose 80 bps, to 17% (16% in 3Q vs. 14% in 2Q). WYNN shed 360 bps of share in Sept, ending the month at 10% (13% in 3Q vs. 16% in 2Q) and MGM’s share rose 120 bps, to 9% (8% in 3Q vs. 7% in 2Q) as it expands its junket-derived VIP business.
CityCenter receives amendment for mechanics’ liens
In an 8K this morning, MGM announced that CityCenter has obtained an amendment to its $1.8B credit facility that allows mechanics’ liens to exist at CC. The amendment will allow for the remaining $424M in liens to exist through 12/31. Importantly, it appears MGM/CC didn’t really give up anything in exchange for the amendment, but the banks are only giving them temporary relief as they may be looking for a broader solution that incl. addressing the project’s debt covenants.
PNK appoints Ginny Shanks as Chief Marketing Officer
PNK appointed Ginny Shanks as CMO this morning. Ms. Shanks has 25+ years of gaming industry experience and has worked closely with PNK CEO Anthony Sanfilippo in her two previous positions as CMO of Multimedia Games and SVP of Brand Management at Harrah's. We think a marketing overhaul will be a major strategic focus over the next six months and could include: 1) more cohesive/company-wide branding, 2) systems/programs for more efficient database marketing and 3) a more effective player rewards program. With several key hires beneath the CMO already in place prior to Ms. Shanks’ appointment, we expect PNK to move quickly on these marketing initiatives and think they can be both longer-term organic revenue and margin expansion drivers.

Anonymous said...

BAC

Market share shift benefits MGM and SJM
According to the Macau Daily Times, there was quite a bit of market share shifting in Sept and final shares are in-line with mid-month market chatter. SJM market share rose 210 bps, to 31% and ended 3Q at 31% (vs. 32% in 2Q). LVS’ share was unchanged at 20% (20% in 3Q vs. 21% in 2Q), Galaxy’s share was unchanged at 13% (13% in 3Q vs 11% in 2Q), MPEL’s share rose 80 bps, to 17% (16% in 3Q vs. 14% in 2Q). WYNN shed 360 bps of share in Sept, ending the month at 10% (13% in 3Q vs. 16% in 2Q) and MGM’s share rose 120 bps, to 9% (8% in 3Q vs. 7% in 2Q) as it expands its junket-derived VIP business.
CityCenter receives amendment for mechanics’ liens
In an 8K this morning, MGM announced that CityCenter has obtained an amendment to its $1.8B credit facility that allows mechanics’ liens to exist at CC. The amendment will allow for the remaining $424M in liens to exist through 12/31. Importantly, it appears MGM/CC didn’t really give up anything in exchange for the amendment, but the banks are only giving them temporary relief as they may be looking for a broader solution that incl. addressing the project’s debt covenants.
PNK appoints Ginny Shanks as Chief Marketing Officer
PNK appointed Ginny Shanks as CMO this morning. Ms. Shanks has 25+ years of gaming industry experience and has worked closely with PNK CEO Anthony Sanfilippo in her two previous positions as CMO of Multimedia Games and SVP of Brand Management at Harrah's. We think a marketing overhaul will be a major strategic focus over the next six months and could include: 1) more cohesive/company-wide branding, 2) systems/programs for more efficient database marketing and 3) a more effective player rewards program. With several key hires beneath the CMO already in place prior to Ms. Shanks’ appointment, we expect PNK to move quickly on these marketing initiatives and think they can be both longer-term organic revenue and margin expansion drivers.

Anonymous said...

BAC

Notes from the road: Las Vegas management meetings Last week, we had the pleasure of meeting with management teams from LVS, MGM, WYNN and PNK. Key takeaways on LVS, MGM and WYNN are below and see our note on PNK titled “Meeting with management and BR update”.
LVS: Early innings at MBS, raising estimates and PO to $40
Management clearly is confident in the ramp up in Singapore and its long-term potential given great infrastructure, strong visitation, high margins and a balanced gaming mix between mass and VIP. In Macau, LVS appears to be avoiding some of the “price war” issues, for now. Long term catalysts for LVS include 1) MBS ramp up from add’l geographies (e.g. India), 2) resolution over sites 5/6 labor, 3) real estate sales and 4) Japan, where we believe LVS is now doing more legwork. We are increasing our ‘11E EBITDA from $2.39B to $2.43B and our PO to $40 based on higher numbers and more confidence in our upside case for MBS.
MGM: A couple of inflections in Las Vegas?
Management remains confident in the continued steady build up of convention business, particularly in 2011/2012. MGM also appears to be coming to grips with the realities of a multi-year consumer recovery and is highly focused on better database and yield management to drive the top-line and reduce costs. We believe high-end business remains healthy in Las Vegas in 3Q, so with CityCenter ramping up, RevPAR potentially inflecting to positive in 3Q for the first time in 10 quarters, and the stock having lagged others in the group, we think sentiment for MGM shares could improve near-term. We are maintaining estimates for now until we get a look at August’s gaming revenue and LVCVA data.
WYNN: Vegas improving, but commissions impacting Macau
We are comfortable with our Las Vegas estimates for Wynn, as group business clearly appears to be ramping up, and recent capex (beach club and Surrender) are visible traffic drivers. Ongoing room renovations are taking ~8.5% or ~400 rooms out of the system on average through 1Q11, which we believe is helping Wynn yield up hotel rates. But in Macau, our checks suggest Wynn could be negatively impacted by recent VIP promotional activity and potentially by weaker hold as well. To be more conservative, we are lowering our 3QE/2011E to $231M/$1,027M from $240M/$1,046M. Longer-term, we remain confident in Wynn’s “best of breed” operating strategy, strong management and ability to drive higher gaming volumes. As such, we maintain our $105 PO.