Thursday, June 4, 2009

The Pin-up Market!

Where were the four horseman on Friday's close? Yeh, that Friday--the magically manipulated Friday close! Or so we were told! (Where's the apology on that call?)

AMZN was at 77.99, today it's 85.52.
RIMM was at 78.64; today it's 82.01.
AAPL was at 135.81; today it's at 143.74.
GOOG was at 417.23; today it's at 440.28.

Now before I tie in the above numbers, let me say something about GOOG first.

Now I advertised GOOG going to 440 on April 13. It's now there. Don't sweat it. I already gave you the next target for GOOG by July 17th. Did you miss that? It's right here. Heck, I put it on Monday at 4:29 in the morning, just so you guys wouldn't miss it!

So give me a quick story, a stock chart, and a stock at 10 that will double in a week. So I'll give you GOOG, which is ready to break out---just look at the chart, and the July 440 calls at 10. Small business was good, it was just the slowdown in Corporate America--but now that the stock market is coming back, Corporate America will spend--and you get earnings in July and a 40 point bump in the stock-before and after earnings!

What are the July 440 calls? Aren't they already at 20.60? Is that a double in a week? That's advertising! Now GOOG closed last Friday at 417. And we get 40 points before, and 40 points after earnings. So that's my target on GOOG by July 17. $500! Ouch! Won't that hurt the bears?

And where then, do you think the other horseman will be at then?

Which is why I wrote this last Saturday.

Now the NASDAQ is already up close to 13% this year. Remember Bill Gross the other day telling us that we were supposed to get used to sub par returns in equities? Well the NAZ could tack on another 30% more this year, so now we are talking of returns north of 40%. Is that Bill Gross' definition of sub par?

Bill Gross is so stuck in mortgages that he couldn't even grasp that concept, even though there's a better than 40% chance of that happening. Why hasn't that been plugged into their variables? (And before you say that's ridiculous, just look at AAPL, GOOG and RIMM and their weighting in the index, and then look at next year's earnings estimates, and add 15% to them because the analysts are too bearish--and now we have 2011 numbers that will hit in 2010, and don't those earnings deserve a higher multiple?--So where do you think stocks are heading? And you want to say that Friday was a manipulation? It was just someone getting a head start on next week's action!)

40% on the NAZ is now already in the bag! I don't care what these bears or any other kook says. It is already done in my book! And you had better prepare for that. Do the math. Add up the weightings, and check what has happened since Friday!

And then check out the earnings estimates. Didn't GOOG already just get a bump? How about the kindle for AMZN? RIMM and APPL's new phones with all their features? And how about when corporate America starts hiring some folks again?

Now if the NAZ is going to be up 40%+ for the year, what is going to happen to consumer confidence? How about Corporate America? How about Christmas?

This market reminds me of my Grandfather's barn.

I used to go down in there as a kid, just to look at the cows, and walk amongst the hay. And it always amazed me, that cow dung, never seemed to smell, and as a kid, you find it funny, when the cows just decide to plop some out while you are walking by them.

One day, I opened a closet in the barn, and hanging inside the door was my Grandfather's Vargas pin-up calendar. It must of been in there twenty years, but it was still on the door!

And that's this market!

It's the Pin-up market. No matter how much sh*t gets spread, this market won't come down. And you just have to laugh at the pathetic nonsense thrown by the bears. Now their scare tactics are just amusing! It falls in on themselves!

The market can't come down, because everyone that likes it, stays in the closet!

Everyone is afraid of getting too much exposure!

And the bears don't realize that the pinup girl is our Government!

They're playing against a stacked deck!


Anonymous said...

do you recommend the july 460-500 calls then for goog?

palmoni said...

480's are at 6.2-6.40. I think they go to 20, and if GOOG is at 480 before earnings they'll be worth 20 also.

They'll keep premium because of GOOG's Q2 earnings report.

Anonymous said...


You are hot with your picks! Any day when there's a negative close, the bears pile on expecting a pullback or sellof. But then they get whacked the next day. Thanks! Keep up the great work.

Anonymous said...

If you are as great as you seem to think you are, why are you writing a blog and not running a hedge fund? I've got news for you: hedge funds make more money.

Those who can do, those who can't write blogs.

Anonymous said...

Any opinion for Cisco?

Palmoni said...

CSCO is cheap, and it will trade like MSFT...gradually moving up.

Anonymous said...

good call on the goog calls. I was going to get in on the 450 july calls but i haven't gotten approved for option trading yet...i understand options and puts but have always just traded stocks.

Palmoni said...

Options are sometimes easier. Especially when we get these great moves!

Missed trades are like city buses. Another one always comes along.

Good luck trading.