Wednesday, August 27, 2008

When "right" is "wrong!"

Remember this?

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Ackman was right: the world's largest bond insurers aren't worthy of a AAA credit rating and may be headed for the bottom of the scale.

Ackman, the 42-year-old hedge fund manager who says he stands to make hundreds of millions of dollars betting against MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. if they go bankrupt, will tell investors at a conference in New York today that losses posted by bond insurers may threaten to breach the capital limits allowed by regulators, making them insolvent.

On June 18, ABK was $2.07. Today it closed at $5.24

On June 18, MBI was $6.15. Today it closed at $11.98.

After the close, MBIA received $741 million dollars for re-insuring FGIC public finance bond portfolio. Yes, the portfolio that Warren Buffett attempted to re-insure. And yes, the Superintendent of Insurance from New York, Eric Dinallo helped broker the transaction.

MBI is trading up over a stick to 13 and change in the afterhours and ABK is up a half to 5.75. Now people may have forgotten about ABK's Connie Lee division, but they will remember tomorrow.

And off forgotten MGIC, (MTG 7.03) which was driven down by a bear raid in the last hour should get legs tomorrow too along with PMI Group (PMI 2.89) which was downgraded yesterday by S&P and anyone selling on that "downgrade" will be as late to the party as the above Bloomberg piece.

You can get a clear reasoned viewpoint that will make you money.

Or you can get a hysterical viewpoint spread by a shortseller that won't make you a dime, and that will cost you money!

Sometimes "right" is wrong and that which looks wrong is right!

As advertised!

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