Thursday, August 14, 2008

The next trillion they'll talk about

It's not what you think. It's not another trillion of losses. That's the most over hyped figure in the history of finance. If I see another talking head on CNBC saying that we are in a "bear market" rally, and we have another trillion of losses that the banks will have to take, I think I will just about gag.

Trillion in losses? How about the trillions of dollars that are short equities here in the US?

How about those trillion?

If we estimate that we have $3 trillion short, and that the markets are going to have a 33% gain in the next twelve months, then that's a trillion worth discussing.

Because that trillion comes from the bears' backs.

The trillion that helps right equity markets in the US.

The trillion that goes into 401K's.

The trillion that helps consumer confidence.

Talk about that trillion. At least, then you are talking about reality.

Not this fake trillion of losses that the talking heads spouse.

That's the trillion you should remember everytime one of these wolves in sheep's clothing comes on the tube.

And while we are talking big numbers, when are the sovereign wealth funds going to deploy some of their trillions of dollars into stocks?

A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money.

And I'm talking about the beginning stages of the most hated and unloved bull market that I have ever seen.


The bulls will make what the bears will lose!

No comments: