Monday, August 4, 2008

Viewpoints change!

Peter Thiel, sold PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion and manages over $7 billion in his hedge fund. He was primarily short the financials and long oil.

In January he was up 24%.

At the end of June he was up 57.9%.

By July 25, he was still up 47%, and he has now unwound his bullish bets on oil, and no longer believes it will hit $200 barrel by the end of 2008.

How many people copycatted him?

So when we hear from these bears warning us Armageddon, just ask yourself one question.

How many people have already acted on that belief?

So when you see the breakdown in the oil stocks, the commodity plays, and the smacking of the market darling Potash, put the above question in your thinking before you listen to the analysts.

Anyone wonder why the selling in the commodity plays are so vicious? Did anyone take a look at the performance figures from some of these hedge funds?

And does anybody remember the huge selloff in the financials? That's what happens when trades get crowded.

The only trade that isn't crowded is being long the monolines!

Which is why I've been giving readers that script!

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