Wednesday, August 20, 2008

China trumps Goldman

And that's the story of the market today. The Shanghai market closed at 2523.28 up 178.81 up over 7% today! Yesterday, after the close Goldman Sachs downgraded the investment banks, and cut estimates almost across the board. This morning, Goldman gave a $149 a barrel year end target for oil.

It's the same story being played out. The short financial, long energy trade. Energy can bounce here, but the play is in natural gas which is too cheap at $8. (UNG 37.39), the natural gas ETF, and Chesapeake Energy (CHK 46.92) are the play on gas. Oil bouncing? Before you tout a target of $149, let's see if oil can get thru $121. I even doubt that! But the changes in China and the bottom which is now in, in that market, means Goldman's bearish call on the financials won't amount to much, and neither will their pump on oil.

China trumps Goldman!

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