On May 5, after the market had a great move, Mark Hulbert said this.
Commentary: Yet more evidence we're in a bear-market rallyWhat I found reinforces the conclusion I reached last week: There is a good possibility that the market's rise since March 9 is a bear-market rally rather than the beginning of a new bull market.
At the same time, I was calling these bears Waldos.
Now Mr. Hulbert is warning us again:
That unfortunately means that the stock market's rally can no longer count on receiving much continuing support from the sentiment data. In other words, the editor of the average short-term market timing newsletter is no less optimistic today over Dow 9,000 than he or she was about the same market level in early January -- just before the stock market was about to go over a cliff. This is not what contrarians believe should occur at major market bottoms. The typical pattern is for there to be a lot more pessimism as the market recovers from such lows than during the initial descent into those levels.
I guess that's the difference between a journalist and myself. I say it like it is. These folks love to use the word "contrarian" when its just an euphemistic way of saying they are right and the markets are stupid.
But if they said that, who would buy it? Who wants to call the markets stupid? Oh wait. Didn't we have one of the most vocal bloggers alert us of that? (Karl should really be running for political office!) And say, "Do Not Be Stupid." And what was his "misplaced" advice on Aprl 11? That if we didn't listen to his bearishness, it would be to our own peril!
So now just call yourself a contrarian, and make bad calls, and then you can continue to write about them!
Even if the calls are--wait--I won't say stupid--I'll put on the hat of a journalist--and just say even if the calls are misplaced!
And while misplacing my modifiers--too your own peril!
Because stupid is only funnier on a shirt, than on your shorts!