Monday, July 20, 2009

Deutsche Bank on MT

X-Here's DB's latest on MT in case you hadn't seen it yet.

Estimates & Target Price Changes
ArcelorMittal (MT.N),USD35.06 Buy Price Target USD42.00 - David S Martin: MT will report its 2Q results on July 29th. Sentiment on the sector has improved and the attention within MT's result should differ from recent quarters. Less attention is likely to be given to MT's balance sheet and earnings 'noise', and we also expect a more sustainable outlook from the company. We rate MT a Buy (upgraded in June) given our sector outlook and its competitive asset position, improved balance sheet and valuation - 2Q EPS loss of $0.30 forecasted. Our forecast compares to a Street estimate of $(0.22) and prior period EPS of $(0.78) in 1Q09 and $4.19 in 2Q08. Our 2Q09 EBITDA estimate is $1.3B; up from 1Q09 EBITDA of $(365)MM on lower costs (impacted by $1.2B inventory charge in 1Q) and slightly higher volumes. Note that MT’s last guidance was for 2Q EBITDA of $1.2-1.5B, including delta FX gains of $100-150MM. We expect average costs (per t) to fall 18% and volumes to improve 2% which should more than offset an 8% fall in steel prices. EBITDA/t of $78 is forecasted for 2Q.


X said...

I still like steel names - inventories are at a low. However todays open and asia action is very frothy. So hedging steel longs with shorts in MOS (no deal and inventories at high) and some index shorts. Agree?

Palmoni said...

Yeh, I sold some calls against X today, they had a good move!

I'm afraid of shorting MOS though!