Thursday, July 23, 2009

The bears are the market's black swan!

Where did we hear that before?

Before we answer that, let's ask where we heard that today? Wasn't it from the bearish, but highly readable Zero Hedge?

Here's what ZH had to say today:

The curveball: Now VIX is directly correlating with stocks. Last time that made sense was, well, never, even though it happened just over a week ago. The Black Swan reverse migration is the market melt up this time around.

That's the definition of a black swan? According to "The Black Swan" author, Nassim Taleb, it is this:

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact making it explainable and predictable.

  • Rarity
  • Extreme Impact
  • Retrospective predictability

I guess we now have that here, on this blog. Because wasn't this not said?

Those that missed the bottom, or don't know why stocks are going up, come up with clever and sophisticated reasons to explain why the market is wrong. Just like a lie. The truth is never complicated. But no one on Wall Street seems to be able to say "I was wrong" or "I missed the bottom." Instead, we get stories like these.

From the same people, who missed the bottom, and have a self interest in stock prices coming down, because they missed it, or are short!

And if only one of these quants funds is up since Marth 9th, how much firepower then, is on the sidelines, who will soon be forced in?

And that my friends, is the black swan event that the bears are missing!

And of course the bears can't recognize it---because the bears are the market's next black swan!

It's good to see that this black swan, as advertised here now has its restrospective predictability!

It did have its rarity. I didn't see anyone else touting this market.

But it still hasn't had its extreme impact.

Because we are just getting started! After all, we're heading to new highs next year!

As advertised!!!

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