Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Choose you this day, whom you will serve

AAPL blows past estimates, and it's earnings were huge. Cash flow for the quarter was $2.3 billion, and they had earnings of $1.94 billion, or $2.13 a share without subscription accounting.

Best quarter ever for Macs. Even in this "recessionary" environment.

But there's a new serpent in the garden, and it's the WSJ . But this time, the serpent has new advice.

Don't take a bite of the apple!

Here's that story:

But if you are investor in this stock, brace yourself for a dose of reality. The shares' best days are surely behind them. Future returns will be much more modest -- and the risks will be greater.

Apple stock is not especially expensive: Perhaps 26 times forecast earnings. That's still not dirt cheap, and you'll need to see fair amount of growth to justify the price.

But many markets are looking saturated, and competition is heating up.

Let's look at this argument for a moment.

AAPL earnings for 2010 will be at least $7.50. So at the after-hours price of 158, AAPL is selling at 21X earnings. AAPL is also sitting on $31 billion of cash, that isn't generating spectacular returns. With 909 million shares outstanding, that's $34 a share. Subtract $34 from the after-hours price of $158, and AAPL is selling at just a 16 multiple of next year's earnings, versus the 26 multiple that the WSJ wants you to buy into.

Once again, we have a serpent in the garden that doesn't know what he is talking about.


X said...

Apple on its way to $180

Palmoni said...

Have to agree with you on that!