Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Do you want your news WHEN it happens or AFTER it happens??

So we had this post today--whereby Wall Street idiots are now, after the fact deemed idiots. Why didn't somebody call them on the carpet when they made their predictions? Oh that's right. Wall Street is too timid to have an opinion! But it was found one place. And it was found here. So it's nice to see that Wall Street, from 3 months to 23 months later, finally recognizes what I saw the day it happened!!

MARCH 2009: Nouriel Roubini predicts new lows in the next 18 months

"During the last recession, the economy bottomed out in November 2001 and GDP growth was robust in 2002 but the U.S. stock markets kept on falling all the way through the first quarter of 2003. So not only were the stock markets not "forward looking," they actually lagged the economic recovery by 18 months--rather than lead it by six to nine months.

A similar scenario could occur this time around. The real economy sort of exits the recession some time in 2010, but deflationary forces keep a lid on the pricing power of corporations and their profit margins, and growth is so weak and anemic, that U.S. equities may--as in 2002--move sideways for most of 2010. A number of false bull starts would occur as economic recovery signals remain mixed.

Thus, most likely, we can brace ourselves for new lows on U.S. and global equities in the next 12 to 18 months."
--Nouriel Roubini on March 12, 2009
Dow: 7,170
Dow today: 11,971

So what was said here, then, about Roubini? And not 23 months later?

How about this:

We go higher

I'd put another giant bull on the top of this piece, but you got that yesterday.

And you got a huge move in stocks!

This weekend, Barron's warned us about Dow 5,000.

If stocks do get to a P/E of 10, the S&P 500 could drop as low as 500, a decline of more than 25% from current levels, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average could drop toward 5000.

So what. We go higher.

Roubini warned us that the Dow would hit 5,000.

So what. We go higher

Meredith Whitney warned us that we will have a $4.7 trillion contraction in credit card loans.

Whitney said available lines were reduced by nearly $500 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008 alone, and she estimates over $2 trillion of credit-card lines will be cut within 2009, and $2.7 trillion by the end of 2010.

So what. We go higher.

Trot her out on CNBC and let her pump the bear case.

So what. We go higher.

Another As Advertised!

APRIL 2009: Dylan Ratigan says this is a suckers' rally, no question

Blodget: Last question.  You've been right in the middle of this meltdown day after day, interviewing the smartest people, etc.  So is this a new bull market, or is this another suckers' rally?
Ratigan:  Suckers' rally.  No question.  That's not an indictment of the judgment of the market.  That's just my perception of the ability of the banks to function in a timely fashion, the ability to create meaningful amounts of jobs in the immediate future, and the as-yet unrecognized meaningful losses to come in commercial real-estate and other asset classes
-- Dylan Ratigan on April 10, 2009
Dow: 8,083
Dow today: 11,971

So what was said here, then, and not 22 months later about Ratigan?

How about this:

Sunday, April 12, 2009

He is Risen!

Today, a lot of people celebrate the resurrection.

But not on Wall Street.

No-one believes in that resurrection; the one of the bull-market variety!

Check out the following quotes:

Ratigan: Suckers' rally. No question. That's not an indictment of the judgement of the market. That's just my perception of the ability of the banks to function in a timely fashion, the ability to create meaningful amounts of jobs in the immediate future, and the as-yet unrecognized meaningful losses to come in commercial real-estate and other asset classes...
It's the question Pilate asked:

"What is truth?" John 18:38

Judging by the numbers of people going to church today, it appears that millions and millions believe in the resurrection.

Maybe Wall Street should learn from the masses.

A little bit of faith, makes the believing easy.

And it comes with it's own rewards!

Another As Advertised!

AUGUST 2009: Bob Janjuah says "The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone'"

"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."
-- Bob Janjuah on Aug. 12, 2009
Dow: 9,361
Dow today: 11,971

So what was said, here, then, about Janjuah and not 17 months later?

Sunday, August 16, 2009

What about Bob?

Bob Janjuah of RBS wants to be heard again, and of course, no better than to have another minister of bearishness, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard to bring it to our attention. From the Telegraph:

He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said. 

This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250. 

This is just stupid talk, but because it's from an intellectual with an agenda, it will get press, even though the chance of it happening is less than zero. Bob's sailing out on the high seas!

Remember four days before the rally started he said, "Be Safe, Be a Survivor, and and Be Liquid" and then he pontificated that China would fall to 1500, and then, as in now, he said the S&P would fall to 500.

So if you didn't know who "Hitler" was yelling at in the video below, who sold stocks at the bottom, you now may have a better idea.

And if you didn't know who the fools were that said that this was just a "bear market rally" you may, now again, have a better idea.

Now remember just a few weeks ago, before this latest rally, how we had other uber bears warning us that the market was going to puke? With their Depression era charts?

And how about a couple months ago on option expiration in June? Remember Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs? Saying we were going to roll-over and die? In June, at option expiration "their" super strategic and highly confidential reports that cost you money (and that's the only thing they do--is they cost you money!) said they were now fully bearish on US stocks. Now less than two weeks after the market bottomed, Charles Biderman said on March at option expiration that the rally could be over. Over!! And expiration in March was going to kill the rally! (And really do these flows really matter? Didn't we have $60B outflow before the bottom, and now we have $57 B inflow--but do these flows measure the shorts that have leaned on stocks?)

It would sure be nice, if someone had a record of that, wouldn't it? Oh that's right. We do. Right here, when it happened.

Biderman said the really was over in March and then over in June--so now it's time to trot out a fresh face! So now we have bearish Bob!

So what's the difference between Biderman and Bob? It's just the same story, dressed up and spun just a little differently, but the only difference is, they think they can average up, and spin their stories because the market is higher, and maybe the sheeple will sell!

These bears can't say "I feel good, I feel great, I feel wonderful" when the market is going up, because then their bearish franchise value becomes diminished.

So they have to talk disaster or Armageddon; otherwise they have to admit they missed the entire rally. So instead of giving us reality, they give us poppycock and popcorn, because their analysis is all fluff, and the script they are touting is only real in their "reel" life!

Another As Advertised!

AUGUST 2009: Doug Kass says markets are overshooting to the upside

"I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year...
A double-dip outcome in 2010 represents my baseline expectation. When the stimulus provided by the public sector is finally abandoned, it seems unlikely to be replaced by meaningful strength or participation by any specific component of the private sector, and the burgeoning deficit (described above) will ultimately require a reversal of policy, leading to higher interest rates, rising marginal tax rates and a lower U.S. dollar. My forecast assumes that the market's focus will shortly shift from the productivity gains that have been yielding better-than-expected bottom-line results toward these chronic and secular worries."
-- Doug Kass, on August 26th, 2009
Dow: 9,543
Dow today: 11,97

So what was said here, and then, about Doug Kass and his call--and not 17 months later?

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

The Doug Kass "top" and bottom call

It really gets wearing calling these Wall Street folks to task, who keep finding cracks in the market, so I decided to read I Corinthians 13, before I wrote this story. Two weeks ago, Doug Kass made another bearish call. Today he amplified it, and said that the market may have made a top for the year, and he gave the following ten reasons:

  1. Cost cuts are a corporate lifeline and so is fiscal stimulus, but both have a defined and limited life.
  2. Cost cuts (exacerbated by wage deflation) pose an enduring threat to the consumer, which is still the most significant contributor to domestic growth.
  3. The consumer entered the current downcycle exposed and levered to the hilt, and net worths have been damaged and will need to be repaired through higher savings and lower consumption.
  4. The credit aftershock will continue to haunt the economy.
  5. The effect of the Fed's monetarist experiment and its impact on investing and spending still remain uncertain.
  6. While the housing market has stabilized, its recovery will be muted, and there are few growth drivers to replace the important role taken by the real estate markets in the prior upturn.
  7. Commercial real estate has only begun to enter a cyclical downturn.
  8. While the public works component of public policy is a stimulant, the impact might be more muted than is generally recognized. There may be less than meets the eye as most of the current fiscal policy initiatives represent transfer payments that have a negative multiplier and create work disincentives.
  9. Municipalities have historically provided economic stability -- no more.
  10. Federal, state and local taxes will be rising as the deficit must eventually be funded, and high-tax health and energy bills also loom.

But remember how Wall Street works. These macro calls are like the game "Who wants to be a millionaire." You get a Phone-a-Friend, an Ask-the-Audience, a Fifty-Fifty (50:50) and then three bad calls of your own.

A week before the market bottomed, Doug Kass got bullish, calling for a generational low. In mid April though, he sold out. And he got short.

On April 17, he was adding to his shorts and his SKF long and said this "Unlike my some of my bullish brethren on RealMoolah, I see blemishes in both Citigroup and General Electric's reports" and he said this "I added to my SPDRs and PowerShares QQQ shorts and my UltraShort Financials ProShares long in premarket trading."

Because the day before Kass said this:

Doug Kass
Buckle Up, Goose -- We're Going Short
4/16/2009 4:39 PM EDT
In light of the fact that the S&P 500 has met my variant viewexpressed five weeks ago, Maverick is now engaging on the short side. I would caution getting too carried away with the market's strength -- which appears now to be the case.

I would say that Doug Kass has been way better than most on this rally, but he has used the "Who wants to be a millionaire" approach to market timing.

But since their were so few bulls at the bottom, and since Cramer needs Kass to sell subscriptions, his record is overstated.

So think about that, and his variant view of the market call today.

It ain't as cracked up as it looks!

Another As Advertised!

OCTOBER 2009: Robert Prechter says "stocks peaked in September"

OCTOBER 2009: Robert Prechter says "stocks peaked in September"

"Stocks are very overvalued. Stocks peaked in September and are back in a bear market."
The S&P 500 will probably fall “substantially below” 676.53, the 12-year low reached on March 9, he said. His projection implies a drop of more than 34 percent from last week’s close of 1025.21. It rose to 1031.77 at 10:05 a.m. in New York.
-- Robert Prechter on Oct. 1, 2009
Dow: 9,509
Dow today: 11,971

Of course Prechter, last fall, did the same thing, when we had the pullback in the market--So we had this, here, and  then about Prechter's bearishness:

Thursday, July 22, 2010

The bears picnic is over!!!

Oh My!! So we had a 140 point pullback in 5 minutes yesterday when Bernanke opened his mouth, and today we get it all back 5 minutes after the opening.

Oh My!!!

Big Deal. The HFT boys just stepped in. You can't handle the volitility? You want to whine? Then get the hell out of the market. The market doesn't need you and it doesn't need your money, and if you want to whine, the market will take what you have left.

Get some balls, get some conviction, and get long!!

I've never seen a market that is so hated by the bears--who can't get anything right, and can't see anything positive because they've been wired to be losers, because they haven't realized that life goes on without them, and the economy just doesn't give a sh*t about individual's own hardships.

Let's go back last month to this cover on Bloomberg Business Week. (You can read it here) Notice the title:

What we can learn from the endless pessimism of Wall Street's biggest bears.

What can we learn? Nothing!!!

Prechter, in that article says "From a peak in 2010 the market should fall for six years!"

Roubini says, "...Everyone is delusional."

Nassim Taleb said, "The same analysis I made in 2006 holds stronger today...."

Meredith Whitney said "It's mathematically impossible to get a constructive jon growth scenario" "In fact, I am more bearish than I've been in a year."

Whatever. Another As Advertised!
OCTOBER 2009: Bill Gross says the rally is at its pinnacle

OCTOBER 2009: Bill Gross says the rally is at its pinnacl

"Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4%–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets—while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers—is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle."
-- Bill Gross on Oct. 27, 2009
Dow: 9,762
Dow today: 11,971

Thursday, October 29, 2009

The anatomy of the sell-off (conjob)

Monday we had wrong way Nouriel Roubini on CNBC warning the world of the catastrophe yet to happen.

Tuesday we had David "devil's advocate" Rosenberg on CNBC warning the world of the catastrophe yet to happen.

On Tuesday we also had these charts by Richard Russell being floated around the Internet, "proving" that the market was about to roll over.


(1) Too many distribution days.
(2) The bullish percentage of NYSE stocks in bullish trends is declining (see tomorrow's site).
(3) The percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 50-day MA is declining (see tomorrow's site).
(4) The Transportation Average continues to decline (even on days when the Dow is up).
(5) The Dow is pressing against important resistance at 10,000. The S&P 500 is pressing against important resistance at 1100. The Nasdaq is pressing against important resistance at 2200. The big even numbers often represent stiff resistance.

Now Wednesday we have Bill "5,000 Dow" Gross of PIMPCO on CNBC telling us that stocks are hopelessly overpriced and that this time, his call of the top is right on the money.

Bill Gross does yoga to help him think. Maybe he should lighten up on the headstands, and  walk on his feet, so he doesn't see the world upside down!

Bill Gross had John Hatzius from Goldman Sachs tag team him, who cut his estimate for Q3 GDP to 2.7%. Ooooooh. Goldman must "know" something!

It looks like they know something. They knew their prop desk was short and the stock prices had to come in! At least I advertised that here, and here!

And then, last night, Cramer went on Mad Money and said that "now the correction is here!" He forgot we were in real life, not reel life!

This morning, we see that SocGen came out with a piece that stocks were hopelessly overvalued, and that the stock drop could turn into a "rout!"

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The two-week retreat in global equities may turn into a “rout” after a measure of so-called leading indicators fell, signaling the economic recovery may be peaking, according to Societe Generale SA’s Albert Edwards.

Morgan Stanley chimed in and said "Stock Market 'Bubble' to End" with this piece:

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The global stock market rally, which resembles the bull run between 2003 and 2007, will end as government spending slows after so-called easy money boosted asset prices, according to Morgan Stanley.

And finally, to even suck in the depressed New Yorkers, whose Yankees got trounced by the Phillies, we saw this piece:

analysts of the game know Philadelphia’s triumph last night is the worst omen for the economy if history repeats itself. 

Why? Because the Philadelphia Athletics went back-to-back in 1929 and 1930! And wasn't that the start of the Great Depression?

Maybe the analyst forget to tell Wall Street that Jimmy Fox's nickname was "The Beast." And isn't this the market of the beast?

So much for anecdotal evidence!

And finally, Cramer this morning tells the world that the $14 trillion US Economy would puke because SPW, a $2.6 billion dollar company, didn't have visibility, and also because Flowserve had downplayed future expectations last night!

Then the GDP printed at 3.5%. (btw who advertised 4% Q3 GDP in April when no-one said that was possible?--AS ADVERTISED!!!)

Right then, the entire bear thesis is OVER!

But Rick Santelli came on CNBC, and said that GDP figure was a backward looking indicator!

Thanks for the help boys! I covered my shorts at prices I never should of had!!!

And that's Wall Street's manipulations.

But the bears forgot, that Wall Street's chief pimp, Timmy Geithner was speaking before the hallowed  halls of Congress, and he wanted prices higher. After all, his boss, needed to be on the airwaves touting the growth the Government bought!

So we had an orchestrated sell-off, to help the big boys who were short, and had it going against them.

If the stock market was wrestling, everyone would know it was phony.

But Wall Street dresses up their pimps, and trots them out on CNBC, and does their best to convince you, the move is real.

They want to slaughter you.

Which is why, I said the script changed.

And in a couple days, the same charts that were trotted out proving the market was ready to roll over, will be trotted out proving the market is  ready to rally.

After it already rallies, of course!!

And after the bears, are once again, slaughtered!
Another As Advertised
And El-Erian's Sugar Highs? He's been pimping that for the last two years!
DECEMBER 2009: Mohamed El Erian says stocks will tank within one month

DECEMBER 2009: Mohamed El Erian says stocks will tank within one month

"We're on a sugar high. It feels good for a while but it unsustainable."
Claims: Stocks will drop 10 percent in the space of three or four weeks, bringing the Standard & Poor's 500 index below 1,000.
-- Mohamed El Erian on Dec. 28, 2009
Dow: 10,547
Dow today: 11,971

Monday, December 28, 2009

PIMCO's El-Erian comes back to his "sugar highs"----again

What else is new?

What do you do if you miss a 85% rally in the NAZ and a 65% rally in the S&P in nine months?

You blame it on sugar.  As in "sugar highs!"

At 980-1010 on the S&P, El-Erian waxed about sugar highs. At 1040 he siad it was a brick wall, and then, we didn't have the "escape velocity" to break through. Now that we are above 1120, he ggoes back to "sugar highs" because PIMCO had already pimped McCulley in November saying that the economy was on a "slow slug."  Now enough time has gone by for the attention-deficit sufferers on Wall Street, that they can trot out El-Erian with the same story that didn't work four months ago, and try it again.  Sort of like the Doug Kass approach of calling the market top! But this time, the interview gets a front page in the LA Times, because maybe the  folks in La-La land will still buy what he's pimping!

Another As Advertised!

And Rosenberg, Fleckenstein, Hussman, etc etc--and all you other bears? Well screw it--I have businesses to run!

Keep pontificating!


Anonymous said...

Lengthy pummeling of your naysayers but fair enough Palmoni. You earned it! :)

Anonymous said...

This doesn't include all the bloggers who are/were apocalyptic.

I would say that there were 50 bearish blogs to every bullish one. All spouting the same bear claptrap about the end of the economy and such.
It must be a human characteristic to be gloom and doom like. Why else the overwhelming negativity when there is no basis in reality for it?

Anonymous said...

He is taking a victory parade. Rally over.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous above, give it a rest.

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